Jazz Mailbag: How likely is a top-3 pick to become an All-Star?
May 19, 2026, 2:27 PM | Updated: May 20, 2026, 10:22 am
SALT LAKE CITY – Welcome to the Utah Jazz Mailbag! This week, we look at the likelihood that a top-3 pick in this year’s draft becomes an All-Star.
Each week, we will send out a prompt on X and BlueSky asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.
Then, we’ll respond to as many as we can in that week’s Jazz mailbag in the Jazz Notes podcast.
Jazz Mailbag: How likely is a top-three pick to become an All-Star?
If you were to give it a “percentage”, how confident do you see DP/Cam/AJ becoming an all star?
— Scalley_Nation (@teverett921) May 18, 2026
Question: If you were to give it a “percentage”, how confident do you see Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, and AJ Dybantsa becoming an All-Star?
Answer: As with the actual draft, you can approach this question in two ways: analytically or on gut feeling. Both offer value in this exercise.
From an analytical standpoint, the question is straightforward. You can look at the number of players selected in the top three over the past 10 drafts who became All-Stars, then apply that percentage to this year’s projected top three.
Truthfully, that is probably the most accurate method.
However, drafts are often labeled as “good drafts” or “bad drafts,” and historically, those distinctions tend to hold some weight.
I really don’t think you can go wrong with a top three pick in this draft.
Any one of Dybantsa, Peterson, or Boozer has a chance to be a franchise changer for the Wizards, Jazz, and Grizzlies.
It’s just about being the “most right” in the top three, rather than being wrong.
— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) May 11, 2026
Jazz Mailbag: What would it take to trade up to the No. 1 pick?
For example, analysts widely labeled the 2024 draft as a “bad draft,” and so far, that assessment appears accurate.
Zaccharie Risacher, Alex Sarr, and Reed Sheppard have all shown flashes as NBA starters, but none appear to be on the verge of becoming a perennial All-Star.
On the other hand, the 2019 draft was called an unusually strong class, and it has produced multiple All-Stars in Zion Williamson and Ja Morant, even if neither player has fully reached his ceiling.
So, let’s start with the data.
Here is a list of the last 30 players selected in the top three of the draft (excluding 2025), in order of their draft position and whether they made an All-Star appearance:
2015
Karl-Anthony Towns — All-Star
D’Angelo Russell — All-Star
Jahlil Okafor — No All-Star
2016
Ben Simmons — All-Star
Brandon Ingram — All-Star
Jaylen Brown — All-Star
2017
Markelle Fultz — No All-Star
Lonzo Ball — No All-Star
Jayson Tatum — All-Star
2018
DeAndre Ayton — No All-Star
Marvin Bagley III — No All-Star
Luka Dončić — All-Star
2019
Zion Williamson — All-Star
Ja Morant — All-Star
RJ Barrett — No All-Star
2020
Anthony Edwards — All-Star
James Wiseman — No All-Star
LaMelo Ball — All-Star
2021
Cade Cunningham — All-Star
Jalen Green — No All-Star
Evan Mobley — All-Star
2022
Paolo Banchero — All-Star
Chet Holmgren — All-Star
Jabari Smith Jr. — No All-Star
2023
Victor Wembanyama — All-Star
Brandon Miller — No All-Star
Scoot Henderson — No All-Star
2024
Zaccharie Risacher — No All-Star
Alex Sarr — No All-Star
Reed Sheppard — No All-Star
Of those 30 players, 16 became All-Stars.
Interestingly, the No. 2 pick — where the Jazz will select — has produced the lowest All-Star odds over the past decade, with a 40 percent success rate.
The No. 1 pick has produced an All-Star 70 percent of the time, while the No. 3 pick has done so half the time.
Ultimately, that is still good news for the Jazz. Statistically, they have at worst a 40 percent chance of adding another All-Star-caliber player to their roster.
What about the eye test?
While the numbers provide a clean view of All-Star probability, gut evaluation still matters.
First, the league’s best scorers typically make All-Star teams, which bodes well for both Dybantsa and Peterson.
Both players averaged more than 25 points per game on a per-36-minute basis and will likely take on major scoring roles at the NBA level.
I expect both players to surpass the 20-point-per-game mark at times in their careers. Between the two, at least one likely earns an All-Star selection.
AJ DYBANTSA NASTY DUNK 🤢pic.twitter.com/y2MTJ9nYIG
— TNT Sports U.S. (@TNTSportsUS) March 20, 2026
If I had to choose, I would lean toward Dybantsa. His flashy dunks and high usage should help him emerge as a star earlier in his career.
That said, if I had to pick one player from this draft most likely to make an All-Star team, I would choose Cam Boozer.
The Duke forward has produced at a high level at every stage of his career, and I expect him to fill the stat sheet in the NBA.
With his rebounding, passing, and well-rounded offensive game, it is easy to envision Boozer reaching 20 points, 10 rebounds, and three assists at times in his career — a combination that typically leads to All-Star appearances.
That does not necessarily mean he will become the best player in the class. However, his floor is higher than both Dybantsa and Peterson, and it is a very high floor.
What does this actually mean?
All-Star appearances do not always provide the best measure of a player’s value.
For example, D’Angelo Russell and Jayson Tatum have both been All-Stars, but Tatum projects as a future Hall of Famer, while Russell largely settled into a journeyman role.
To better evaluate value, look at the players among those top-30 picks who have earned All-NBA honors:
Karl‑Anthony Towns
Ben Simmons
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum
Luka Dončić
Ja Morant
Anthony Edwards
Victor Wembanyama
Eight players meet that criteria, or just over one in four. But they offer a clearer picture of elite outcomes. All-NBA players typically produce at a high level on winning teams, while All-Star selections tend to include more noise.
Furthermore, these eight players are pretty evenly distributed across positions.
Towns and Wembanyama are true bigs. Simmons, Brown, and Tatum are playmaking wings, while Dončić, Morant and Edwards are high-usage guards.
In other words, no single position consistently produces better outcomes among the top-three picks.
Overall, the Jazz benefit from holding a high pick — which already carries strong odds of producing an All-Star — in what appears to be a strong draft class, a combination that historically increases the likelihood even further.
It’s a good spot to be in, and I think the Jazz are slightly more likely than not to pick another All-Star in June.
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Ben Anderson is the author of the Jazz Mailbag, a Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports, the author of the Jazz Mailbag, and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 2-6 p.m. with Jake Scott on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone. Find Ben on Twitter at @BensHoops, on Instagram @BensHoops, or on BlueSky.
