No. 10 BYU vs. TCU: Game day preview plus score prediction
Oct 2, 2026, 11:40 PM
FORT WORTH, Texas — BYU vs TCU is an intriguing matchup on the Week 5 college football slate.
EA Sports’ College Football 27 listed the matchup as one of their “Games of the Week.”
What’s interesting about that “Game of the Week” conversation is that TCU has played poorly so far this season. BYU, meanwhile, has been the excellent team many teams expected them to be.
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The No. 10-ranked Cougars arrived in Fort Worth on Friday afternoon, following a bye week. They enter this game at 3-0 overall and 1-0 in Big 12 play.
TCU is 2-2 and 0-1 in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs are 0-2 against Power Four competition this year.
BYU ended a five-game losing streak in the all-time series against TCU last year with a 44-13 victory over the Horned Frogs in Provo. Is revenge on the mind for TCU in this primetime showdown in Cowtown?
No. 10 BYU vs. TCU
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium
Kickoff: 5 p.m. (MDT)
TV: ESPN & Disney+
Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM)
Three gameday thoughts
1. Explosive plays
BYU’s offense has been flying high after the first month of the season. Today, they will face a talented TCU defense that has been doing everything it can to give the struggling Horned Frog offense a chance to win games.
TCU ranks near the top in college football this year in explosive plays allowed, defined as runs of 10-12+ yards or passing plays of 15+ yards.
BYU has completed 17 passes of 15 yards or more on their 65 attempts this season. It’s a big-play offense.
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has shown improvement in his deep ball attempts this season. He’s 3-of-6 on passing attempts that go 20 yards or more this year.
2. Jump out to a quick start
TCU has been an underperforming team that is still searching for the identity of its 2026 squad. If BYU can jump on them early with a lead, it could result in a long day for the Horned Frogs.
Earlier this week, TCU had a “players-only meeting” to make sure everyone was on the same page. That’s usually not the message you want to hear heading into a matchup that could be a Big 12 Championship race elimination game for TCU.
📍 Fort Worth, Texas pic.twitter.com/eGBYMUVIwh
— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) October 3, 2026
3. Hard to believe it’s been 20 years since BYU last defeated TCU in Fort Worth
BYU last defeated TCU in Fort Worth in 2006. It was a Thursday night contest that helped the 2006 team believe they could beat anyone in the country after upsetting a nationally ranked TCU team.
In the three visits to Cowtown since that win, BYU has lost by an average of four touchdowns in each matchup, including three years ago, a 33-point setback as Big 12 members.
BYU defensive coordinator Kelly Poppinga said he shared a photo from that 2006 victory with former BYU coach and current Utah State head coach Bronco Mendenhall this past week.
Two BYU vs TCU questions
1. Will BYU’s defense make TCU QB Jaden Craig feel uncomfortable?
BYU is last in the Big 12 in sacks. That’s not too big of a concern when you consider BYU is in the Top-10 in turnover margin this season. So the “HAVOC” is being generated in other ways.
However, BYU players such as Hunter Clegg, Tausili Akana, and Isaiah Glasker have been generating many hurries on opposing quarterbacks. Will they have similar success against a TCU offensive line that has struggled this season?
I believe they will.
TCU has been a one-dimensional offense this season against Power Four opponents. In two games against P4 teams, the Horned Frogs are averaging 2.11 yards per carry on the ground. They are relying heavily on Harvard transfer QB Jaden Craig to carry them.
If the ground attack is kept in check again for TCU, they turn to the arm of Craig, who loves taking shots down the field; guys like Akana, Clegg, Glasker, and Nusi Taumoepeau have to always be in the area so Craig doesn’t have all the time in the world to air it out.
If they force Craig into some rushed decisions, don’t be surprised to see BYU’s secondary come away with a pick or two.
BYU football has won eight straight as a road favorite.
Last loss as a road favorite was at Liberty in 2022. pic.twitter.com/V6dDyKBAsA
— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) October 2, 2026
2. How many BYU fans show up at Amon G. Carter Stadium?
My flight into Dallas-Fort Worth was filled with BYU fans and athletic department personnel. The BYU Cheer team was on the flight, along with many Cougar fans.
Tickets to today’s game plummeted to $22 per seat at one point on the secondary market. With the amount of BYU fans in the DFW Metroplex and surrounding states, if there’s a cheap deal on tickets, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see many Cougar fans invade “The Carter” on Saturday night.
One score prediction for BYU vs TCU
TCU can make this a game entering the fourth quarter. The Horned Frogs’ passing attack gained one of its biggest weapons last week in Jordan Dwyer at wide receiver.
Dwyer had five receptions for 100 yards.
TCU can air it out. That could be enough to keep this interesting in the final period.
However, TCU has no identity with this group that they have the ability to close out a game. BYU has been excellent under Sitake in the Big 12 era, winning games as a road favorite. The Cougars have won eight consecutive games, dating back to 2022 as the road favorite.
When you have a player like LJ Martin, you’re set up for success.
BYU pulls away in the fourth quarter and earns a double-digit victory.
Score Prediction: BYU 30, TCU 20
Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for KSL and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast daily on KSL Sports YouTube and KSL NewsRadio (SUBSCRIBE). Harper also co-hosts Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL NewsRadio.
Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU athletics in the Big 12 Conference on X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram: @Mitch_Harper.
