No. 11 BYU vs. No. 4 Texas Tech: Big 12 Championship Preview Plus Score Prediction

ARLINGTON, Texas – The Big 12 Championship featuring BYU vs Texas Tech is here.

It’s a highly anticipated matchup with both programs dreaming of this stage for decades. Both are making their first appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Texas Tech enters the game ranked No. 4 in the College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings and appears comfortably in the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, BYU, also at 11-1 and with its lone loss to the Red Raiders in November, is at No. 11, on the outside looking in, and basically needing a win to punch its ticket into the Playoff.

No. 11 BYU vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

Location: AT&T Stadium

Kickoff: 10 a.m. (MST)

TV: ABC

Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM) — Pregame begins at 8 a.m.

Three Game Day Thoughts

1. Wild week concludes in Arlington

Take a breath for a second and enjoy the moment, because it was a crazy week for BYU football, from the Kalani Sitake contract negotiations and flirtation with Penn State. Then to Signing Day, and finally preparing for one of the biggest games in the 21st century for the program.

It’s been a hectic week, but it’s now time to play the game. However, was the early week uncertainty a significant distraction for this group? We will find out early against the Red Raiders.

The matchup features two head coaches who landed large contract extensions this week in BYU’s Kalani Sitake and Texas Tech’s Joey McGuire. Both coaches are represented by agents at Athlete’s First, so that agency didn’t see this week as hectic at all.

Still, it was a crazy one on the BYU side of things. How ready are they as they prepare for another early kickoff against the Red Raiders?

2. BYU is healthier this time around against Texas Tech

When BYU lost to Texas Tech 29-7 on November 8 in Lubbock, Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin wasn’t at full strength as he was working his way back from a shoulder injury that he suffered two weeks prior against Iowa State.

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— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) December 5, 2025

Martin himself acknowledged that he had some lack of confidence in his shoulder entering the game against Tech in Lubbock. Since that game, Martin has averaged 135 yards per game on the ground.

Also, when you look at BYU’s overall availability report, it’s relatively light as tight end Keayen Nead is probable. Outside of that, no one else is on the availability report.

3. Texas Tech has one of the best defenses BYU has faced in the Kalani Sitake era

The Red Raiders have only allowed 100 points against Big 12 opponents this season. That’s 11 points per game over nine games.

Watching the Red Raiders against BYU last month made me think this was probably the best defense BYU has gone up against in the Kalani Sitake era.

There are some excellent contenders, 2023 Texas, 2019 Utah, but this Texas Tech defense with Jacob Rodriguez, David Bailey, Romello Height, and Lee Hunter is elite.

Two BYU vs Texas Tech Questions

1. Will BYU ditch the “max protect” formations and unleash the tricks on offense?

BYU turned to a lot of max-protect formations to keep Bear Bachmeier upright against the swarming Texas Tech defense. It worked by only allowing one sack, but BYU’s offense generated no explosive plays and was shut down the entire game, finishing with only seven points.

If there was ever a game to dig into the bag of “specials” in Aaron Roderick’s playbook, this is the game.

 

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2. Will BYU win the turnover margin?

This season, there have been only two games in which BYU’s defense didn’t record an interception. That was the season opener against Portland State and the loss to Texas Tech.

BYU has to generate some turnovers on Tech quarterback Behren Morton or on special teams, which were huge moments in the loss in Lubbock last month.

BYU needs to be at least plus-two in the turnover margin to win this game.

One BYU vs Texas Tech Score Prediction

BYU is going to be more competitive in this matchup against Texas Tech than in the meeting in Lubbock. Still, that might not be enough against this balanced, talented Red Raiders squad.

They need to get off to a quick start, but I’ll call for Tech to get an early touchdown with BYU responding to tie it up.

I’m expecting a low-scoring game in this one, as both teams play at a high level. The first one to 20 wins this game, and I’ll give a slight edge to Joey McGuire’s Red Raiders.

A one-possession loss to Texas Tech should show the committee that the performance in Lubbock was a one-off and should no longer hurt them in the Playoff at-large pool, but we know they won’t get any respect.

Score Prediction: Texas Tech 23, BYU 17

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