Predictive Metrics Trending Up For BYU Football After 4-0 Start
Sep 25, 2024, 9:29 PM
PROVO, Utah – Entering the 2024 season, very few were high on the outlook for BYU football.
The computers were definitely among the group with low expectations for the Cougars.
However, after starting the season 4-0 with a win over one of the top Big 12 teams, the forecast for BYU this season is trending up.
ESPN’s FPI and the Massey Ratings are changing their tune on BYU.
In ESPN’s FPI metrics, BYU now has a 51% chance of winning five of its remaining eight games. Entering the season, BYU only had two games with 50% or better odds of winning by the FPI.
The FPI, despite its detractors, has been spot-on with BYU football in recent years. Last year, they projected no bowl game for the Cougars.
The FPI metrics forecasted a seven-win regular season for 2022 and a 10-win season in 2021. Both of those forecasts were right.
ESPN FPI rated BYU as the 73rd-best team in the season. After four weeks of play, the Cougars have climbed to No. 37.
The Massey Ratings had a similarly low projection for BYU entering the 2024 season, with the Cougars favored in only three games. Now, they are projected as favorites in four of the remaining eight games.
Win probabilities for the remaining 2024 BYU football schedule
The win probabilities are courtesy of ESPN’s FPI and the Massey Ratings.
at Baylor (Sept. 28)
- BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 52.1%; Massey – 49%
- Preseason probability: FPI – 34%; Massey – 40%
- Baylor FPI Rank: No. 56
- Preseason FPI Rank: No. 55
Arizona (Oct. 12)
- BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 75%; Massey – 67%
- Preseason probability: FPI – 33.8%; Massey – 42%
- Arizona FPI Rank: No. 62
- Preseason FPI Rank: No. 24
Oklahoma State (Oct. 18)
- BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 42.9%; Massey – 43%
- Preseason probability: FPI – 30.2%; Massey – 34%
- Oklahoma State FPI Rank: No. 21
- Preseason FPI Rank: No. 26
at UCF (Oct. 26)
- BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 26.1%; Massey – 42%
- Preseason probability: FPI – 22.7%; Massey – 38%
- UCF FPI Rank: No. 16
- Preseason FPI Rank: No. 32
at Utah (Nov. 9)
- BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 35.3%; Massey – 26%
- Preseason probability: FPI – 24%; Massey – 18%
- Utah FPI Rank: No. 22
- Preseason FPI Rank: No. 27
Kansas (Nov. 16)
- BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 58.2%; Massey – 61%
- Preseason probability: FPI – 27.5%; Massey – 44%
- Kansas FPI Rank: No. 35
- Preseason FPI Rank: No. 17
at Arizona State (Nov. 23)
- BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 52.6%; Massey – 60%
- Preseason probability: FPI – 42.4%; Massey – 50%
- Arizona State FPI Rank: No. 50
- Preseason FPI Rank: No. 63
Houston (Nov. 30)
- BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 85.1%; Massey – 84%
- Preseason probability: FPI – 62.6%; Massey – 63%
- Houston FPI Rank: No. 88
- Preseason FPI Rank: No. 78
Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.
