No. 22 BYU vs. Baylor: Game Day Preview Plus Score Prediction

Sep 27, 2024, 8:32 PM | Updated: 10:15 pm

KSL Sports

WACO, Texas – BYU vs Baylor is taking place on the gridiron for the fifth meeting all-time. However, it’s the first as Big 12 opponents.

The two faith-based programs have met four previous times, with each team claiming a pair of victories. Neither team has won on the other’s road venue.

📍 Waco, Texas

No. 22 #BYU vs. Baylor#GoCougs #Big12FB pic.twitter.com/tVdWEliDgV

— KSL Sports (@kslsports) September 28, 2024

That’s good news for Baylor entering the Saturday morning tilt. BYU would love to end this stat as they are looking for their first win in Waco and their first-ever Big 12 road win.

BYU enters the game riding high with a 4-0 record, 1-0 in Big 12 play, and No. 22 ranking in the AP Top 25 poll.

Baylor is 2-2, 0-1 in Big 12 action after a gut-wrenching loss in overtime to the Colorado Buffaloes.

BYU is looking for its first 5-0 start to a season since 2021. Coincidentally, the last 5-0 start in 2021 was also the last season BYU visited McLane Stadium on the banks of the Brazos River.

No. 22 BYU vs. Baylor

Location: McLane Stadium

Kickoff: 10 a.m. (MDT)

TV: FS1

Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM)

Three Game Day Thoughts

1. Style points don’t matter. Find a way to win.

After Saturday at Baylor, BYU has a bye week. If they can get another win, they will go into the bye with a 5-0 record and their next two games at home. It’s a huge opportunity in Waco for BYU to turn their fifth statement of the season into one that puts them in the Big 12 Championship conversation.

One difference between this undefeated start and hot starts in the past is that BYU doesn’t have to rely on others to reach the highest stages in college football. Win games, and win your conference. That’s it.

I bring this up because this matchup against Baylor has the makings to be a game that isn’t stylistically beautiful. It could look like the SMU game, where it’s leaning on the defense to win the ball game.

If that happens, that’s OK. Because BYU is no longer worrying about “style points.” They are in the power conference club.

Find a way to win the ball game and enjoy the bye week.

2. Baylor’s defense is talented enough to make this a rock fight

Last week, Baylor’s defense recorded eight sacks during the loss at Colorado.

The instant thought would be, well, that’s against Colorado. Yes, the Buffs don’t have a good offensive line. But as someone who has watched BYU teams of the past struggle to generate sacks against anyone, eight sacks is impressive.

Texas Tech transfer Steve Linton is a player to watch. He had two sacks and two tackles for loss last week.

The Baylor defense is 10th nationally in success rate entering week five. They have the personnel to give BYU’s offense headaches.

#BYU vs. Baylor: Extended Pregame kicks off at 7 a.m. this Saturday from Waco.#BYUFootball @kslnewsradio pic.twitter.com/l2chUiAQGt

— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) September 26, 2024

3. Finish drives with a kick

The past two weeks, BYU QB Jake Retzlaff and the Cougar offense have done an excellent job of taking care of the ball. If they avoid the turnovers again this week, there’s a great chance BYU will come away with a coveted Big 12 road win.

Baylor is 94th nationally in turnover margin entering this game. BYU is 23rd.

The best rule of thumb is to always end every drive with a kick (punt, field goal, or point after attempt).

Two BYU vs Baylor Questions

1. Who will be the top running backs for both teams?

BYU and Baylor like the options they have at running back. Both teams view those position units as areas of strength. But through four weeks, there’s a lack of clarity about who the top ball carriers will be on a weekly basis.

It would be easier for BYU if LJ Martin were healthy. Martin is out this week as he continues to recover from an ankle injury he suffered against SMU.

The good news for the Cougars is that Hinckley Ropati is back. There will be some intrigue around Sione I. Moa, who was seen around campus this week in a boot.

Despite the revolving door of running backs due to injuries, BYU’s leading rusher is quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who has 103 yards on 28 carries.

On the Baylor side, the Bears have started Bryson Washington. But they have four backs who have rushed for over 100 yards this season. They have a combination of Dawson Pendergrass, Dominic Richardson, and Richard Reese to go along with QB Sawyer Robertson.

It will be interesting to see how the Bears divvy the carries with their backs.

2. How does BYU handle the early kickoff time?

Investing time into breaking down performances during the daytime versus night seems like a silly narrative built by the media. But the numbers don’t lie. BYU has struggled in day games since 2019 compared to its dominance as “Vampire Cougs” at night.

A case in point is the lights-out showing in the win over Kansas State a week ago.

BYU arrived in Waco on Friday afternoon. In preparation for Saturday’s 10 a.m. kickoff, the players have been waking up at 6 a.m. (Mountain Time).

Players have downplayed the significance of an early kick time, so let’s see if they can win their first-day game as a Big 12 team.

One Score Prediction for BYU vs Baylor

This setup has typically been a spot where BYU drops games. But I do believe this BYU team has improved significantly from recent years.

There will be some struggles in this game. I’m expecting the field goal kickers to be involved. Baylor’s Isaiah Hankins has booted a field goal of 50+ yards this season. BYU’s Will Ferrin has as well.

The difference is that BYU’s defense will be opportunistic once again. I expect they’ll generate a couple of takeaways that will set up BYU’s offense with short fields.

Then Jake Retzlaff and the offense seize the moment and take advantage of those opportunities. But BYU will have to work for the entire 60 minutes to get this win.

Score Prediction: BYU 23, Baylor 17

Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.