No. 13 BYU vs. Oklahoma State: Game Day Preview Plus Score Prediction
Oct 18, 2024, 12:01 AM
PROVO, Utah – BYU vs Oklahoma State is taking place on the gridiron for the fourth meeting all-time.
It’s the first time BYU is facing a repeat opponent as a member of the Big 12 Conference.
Last year, Oklahoma State defeated BYU in double overtime 40-34 in Stillwater.
BYU hasn’t lost a game since last November’s setback against the Pokes. The Cougars have jumped out to a 6-0 start and a 3-0 mark in Big 12 play.
Oklahoma State is still looking for its first win in Big 12 action this year. The Cowboys are 0-3 in Big 12 play for the first time since 2005.
No. 13 BYU vs. Oklahoma State
Location: LaVell Edwards Stadium
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. (MT)
TV: ESPN
Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM) — Extended pregame begins at 5:30 p.m.
Three Game Day Thoughts
1. Revenge Factor
BYU head coach Kalani Sitake downplayed the “revenge factor” against Oklahoma State this week. However, his teams have been good in revenge spots.
One of the best wins in his career as BYU’s head coach was in a revenge game against No. 6 Wisconsin in 2018, one year after the Badgers torched BYU 40-6 in Provo.
BYU took down Utah and USF in 2021 in revenge spots; the same goes for the win at Arkansas last year.
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who started last year’s loss in Stillwater, made the meaning of this game clear.
“We remember that. So we’re coming out ready because we owe them one,” Retzlaff said.
puttin' em in a seatbelt. pic.twitter.com/2vRlmDEzwX
— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) October 17, 2024
2. BYU’s defense needs to come out strong in the first half
If you want to get nitpicky with BYU’s last two wins in Provo, the defense started slow.
Against Kansas State and Arizona, BYU’s defense, which has shined this year, gave up too many yards early in games. There have been reports that Oklahoma State will start backup Garrett Rangel at quarterback this week. If he gets the nod, don’t allow him or star RB Ollie Gordon to gain confidence early in this game.
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Put the clamp down early, and BYU should be able to roll in this game.
BYU enters the matchup with the nation’s top pass efficiency defense, which should be worrisome for any quarterback Oklahoma State trots out against BYU.
3. Take care of business on third down
BYU’s third down conversion rate at 124th nationally deserves some context as they view the opponent’s side of the field as four down territory. However, the 30.6% conversion rate needs to improve so they aren’t forced to make aggressive decisions so often.
BYU’s fourth down conversion rate is 78.6%, which is good for 11th nationally.
One area I’ll be monitoring is the distances BYU has on third downs. It would be big for BYU to have third and shorts, which could allow to turn to LJ Martin, Hinckley Ropati, and Sione I. Moa on the ground to eat up the clock.
Two BYU vs Oklahoma State Questions
1. What tricks will Mike Gundy throw at BYU after a bye week?
Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State teams are 19-11 coming off bye weeks. A coach like Gundy has the ability to divise an impressive game plan coming out of a bye to catch a team off guard.
Look at last year. The Pokes were 2-2 with a loss to South Alabama. They came out of the bye week and took down Kansas State, kicking off their run to the Big 12 Championship Game.
Extended #BYU vs. Oklahoma State pregame coverage on Friday night.
Coverage starts at 5:30 p.m. on @kslnewsradio & @kslsports app. #BYUFootball pic.twitter.com/aKz6lFZa6b
— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) October 17, 2024
There have been reports that Garret Rangel is going to get the starting nod over Alan Bowman at quarterback.
I’m curious to see if Oklahoma State is still invested in this year or if they are putting together building blocks for 2025 and beyond. We’ll see. But don’t put it past Gundy and offensive coordinator Kasey Dunn to dial up some looks BYU hasn’t seen this year.
The BYU defense has the talent to withstand new looks thrown their way. But this will be an interesting test.
2. Is Jake Retzlaff due for a big passing performance?
Jake Retzlaff hasn’t had a 300-yard passing performance since week one against Southern Illinois. Neither Retzlaff nor anyone on the BYU team is stressing about it, as the team is 6-0 and rolling right now.
But this matchup, assuming the weather holds up without rain, might pose some opportunities for Retzlaff and the BYU passing attack to gain some big yards through the air.
Oklahoma State is 109th nationally in pass yards allowed (258.5) and 68th in passing efficiency defense.
One Score Prediction for BYU vs Oklahoma State
BYU is the better team in this matchup. However, with its coaching staff, Oklahoma State can spring an upset. Wild things happen in the Big 12, but I don’t see BYU having a letdown.
BYU’s trench play has been underrated this season, both on offense and defense. The defensive line, with seniors Tyler Batty, Blake Mangelson, and John Nelson, has shined this season. On the second level of defense, Jack Kelly, Harrison Taggart, and National Defensive Player of the Week Isaiah Glasker are waiting behind them.
The offensive line with Bruce Mitchell at the center hasn’t skipped a beat in replacing injured Connor Pay.
Ollie Gordon is kept under 100 yards, and BYU’s offense puts together another efficient performance to keep their undefeated season intact.
Score Prediction: BYU 34, Oklahoma State 20
Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.
