Score Prediction For BYU’s NCAA Matchup Against Alabama
Mar 26, 2025, 11:17 PM
NEWARK, N.J. – BYU basketball is preparing for its first game in the Sweet 16 round since 2011. Like 14 years ago, BYU is preparing to take on a No. 2 seed team from the SEC.
This time it’s the Alabama Crimson Tide, the nation’s top scoring offense.
BYU defeated No. 11 seed VCU, then No. 3 seed Wisconsin, to reach the regional semifinal.
For Alabama, they took down No. 15 seed Robert Morris, then No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s.
As they were against Wisconsin, BYU enters Thursday night’s matchup against Alabama as an underdog.
BYU is 5-1 in its past six games as an underdog.
BYU vs. Alabama
Regional Semifinals – 2025 NCAA Tournament
Location: Newark, New Jersey
Arena: Prudential Center
Date: Thursday, March 27, 2025
Tip-Off: 5:09 p.m. (MDT)/7:09 p.m. (EDT)
TV: CBS
Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM in Utah — Extended pregame begins at 3 p.m. MDT/5 p.m. EDT)
Offense is mandatory in this Sweet 16 matchup
Two of the best offenses in the country are squaring off in this matchup.
Since February 12, BYU has the No. 1 offense in adjusted efficiency in the country. Meanwhile, Alabama is the number one scoring offense, averaging more than 90 points per game.
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— KSL Sports (@kslsports) March 26, 2025
The pace of this game should be off the charts.
“They have the fastest pace of any team in the country. … But, you know, we like to play fast, too,” said BYU assistant coach Will Voigt to KSL Sports. “So I think it’s going to be a great game from like a fan standpoint. Both teams are gonna get up and down. Both teams have a lot of offensive firepower. So, I think it’s going to be a fun matchup.”
This will be a game where scoring droughts could prove disastrous. The other team has the firepower to pounce on a four or five-minute drought and build a cushion that could never allow the other team to get back in it.
Alabama has six players who average double-figures in scoring. BYU has seven players averaging at least 7.3 points per game in its rotation, which can extend as far as 11 players, if needed.
Should see the full collection of rosters in action
No team is completely healthy in late March. Teams are banged up with soreness and bruises. That’s typical. Looking inside these locker rooms, before and after NCAA Tournament games, there’s no shortage of ice packs on these players as they navigate the toughest games of the season.
Despite the bruises, both teams should have their full rosters available to play.
BYU has had its roster available throughout this NCAA Tournament run since Kanon Catchings returned from a knee injury.
The freshman forward only appeared in four minutes in the win over VCU. He didn’t play against Wisconsin.
Alabama big man Grant Nelson was banged up in the SEC Tournament with a left knee injury. On Sunday, he returned to the starting lineup in Alabama’s NCAA Tournament win over Saint Mary’s.
Alabama head coach Nate Oats expects Nelson to be ready on Thursday night.
“Yeah, for the most part,” Oats said when asked if Grant Nelson and Cliff Omuruyi were healthy. “I talked to Grant. He says he was at 90 percent, but then his point was I’ve been at 90 percent for the most of the year. I don’t know who is at 100 percent at this point of the year. Cliff (Omuruyi) is for sure healthy. Grant is pretty healthy. Not 100 percent, but close enough.
“We’ve got everything about as close to 100 as you’re going to be able to get at this point of the year. And Grant is probably the furthest from that, but like he made the point to me, he hasn’t been better than 90 for the last month or so. I think we’ll have our full roster available for us to play this game.”
Battle-tested teams
Both BYU and Alabama have won their share of games against Quad 1 opponents this year.
When you include the postseason, BYU has won 10 games against Quad 1 teams, while the Crimson Tide has won a dozen games against some of the best teams in the sport.
BYU basketball players to watch
When everyone is talking about offense, who could be a player that provides a spark on the defensive side?
There are a couple that come to mind.
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First, BYU center Keba Keita. The former Utah transfer has always been an incredible athlete. Now, he’s pairing that athleticism with an intense physicality that is hard for opposing big men to match.
Keita is averaging 7.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks in the NCAA Tournament. He’s also dropping 9.5 points on the offensive end.
But defensively, he’s been an enforcer and it will be intriguing to see how he matches against Clifford Omoruyi in the post.
Another player to watch for BYU is guard Trey Stewart.
The senior guard has ties to Newark, New Jersey. His father, Ray Stewart, is from the area.
Stewart is one of BYU’s best defensive players on the guard line. It’s going to be difficult to slow down Alabama guard Mark Sears. But can Stewart make things difficult for Consensus All-American?
Stewart provided a huge lift for BYU in the win over Wisconsin, which was then capped off by an after-the-clock-expiring slam dunk from the American Fork native.
He’s one to watch in this matchup.
BYU/Alabama: Score Prediction
I’m calling for another BYU upset.
Look for Richie Saunders to have another 20+ point performance. Then an “X factor” will be Egor Demin.
Demin thrived against Wisconsin with an 8-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Like the Badgers, Alabama doesn’t force many turnovers. They are 316th nationally in that stat. That’s good news for Demin, who I believe is playing his best basketball this season.
Also, BYU’s defense is much tougher than people give them credit for. Alabama is going to put up points. There’s no doubt about that. But, I have more trust that BYU can string together stretches of consecutive stops compared to Alabama.
BYU moves on to the Elite Eight for the first time since 1981.
Score Prediction: BYU 93, Alabama 91
Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.
