Jazz Mailbag: Would Team Trade Markkanen To Keep 2026 Pick?
Aug 5, 2025, 1:00 PM
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH - FEBRUARY 06: Lauri Markkanen #23 of the Utah Jazz shoots over Luguentz Dort #5 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the first half at Delta Center on February 06, 2024 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)
(Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)
SALT LAKE CITY – Welcome to the Utah Jazz mailbag, where this week we explore if the team would trade Lauri Markkanen to hold onto their 2026 draft pick.
Each week, we will send out a prompt on X and BlueSky asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.
Then, we’ll respond to as many as we can in that week’s Jazz mailbag in the Jazz Notes podcast.
Jazz Mailbag: Would Jazz Trade Markkanen To Keep Draft Pick?
What happens if Ace is legit. 20 ppg and great efficiency. Real ROTY possibility… and the other young guys make positive steps forward and we are at risk for losing the pick. Do we move Lauri at the deadline to keep the pick? Or do we just roll and let what happens happen
— Cisco (@Cisbro) August 4, 2025
This Week’s Question: Should Jazz Trade Markkanen to Keep the Pick?
Answer: This is a complicated question because of the number of hypotheticals, and what would have to go right for the Jazz to be in a spot to risk losing their 2026 draft pick, which is top eight protected.
Meaning, if the pick were to fall between 9-30 in the first round, it belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
If it remains 1-8, it stays in Utah.
So, let’s lay out the scenario in which the Jazz are at risk of losing the pick, having won far more games than most in the media are projecting.
What Needs To Go Right?
First, if the Jazz finish with the sixth-worst record or lower next season, they’ll have at least a 96.2 percent chance of holding onto their pick.
That means to have even a moderately realistic shot (14.2 percent) of losing their first round pick via bad lottery luck, they’d need to finish with the league’s seventh-worst record or better, which over the last three seasons has meant an average win total of 30.6 games.
My last pre-season lottery simulation has the Nets keeping the top spothttps://t.co/FXkXbE02qc pic.twitter.com/cQnEE5VRJi
— Tankathon.com (@tankathon) October 22, 2024
That’s a 13-game improvement over the Jazz’s 2024-25 win total, now without Collin Sexton, John Collins, or Jordan Clarkson. And even then, the Jazz would have an 85.8 percent chance of drafting in the top eight.
Second, since we’re teasing out hypotheticals, how would the Jazz get to the 30-win mark?
How Could Jazz Reach 30 Wins?
At the top of the list would be a major step forward from several of the Jazz’s young players.
Just as Walker Kessler made a meaningful leap in year three, two or more of Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Taylor Hendricks, Kyle Filipowski, Cody Williams, and Isaiah Collier would have to make a similar jump.
Jazz Mailbag: What Could Extensions Look Like For Jazz Young Players?
That would give the Jazz some legitimate, playable depth alongside Markkanen, Kessler, and Jusuf Nurkic to replace the production of Clarkson, Collins, and Sexton.
Will Rookies Step Up?
Unfortunately, that alone likely wouldn’t be enough.
The team would also need to see an enormous rookie season from either Ace Bailey or Walt Clayton Jr., providing the Jazz with a sixth or seventh man in rotation.
ACE BAILEY ON THE LOB FROM ISAIAH COLLIER 🔥 pic.twitter.com/KNGbArOhLo
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) July 8, 2025
It’s not impossible, as we saw with Donovan Mitchell leading the Jazz in scoring as a rookie on a team that won its first-round playoff series, but it is rare.
Can Markkanen Return To Form?
Finally, (in addition to near-perfect health), the Jazz would need to see Lauri Markkanen return to All-Star form, which hasn’t been the case since the first half of the 2023-24 season.
Even before last year’s so-so showing, the sharpshooting forward finished the 2023-24 campaign averaging 22.6 points and 6.1 rebounds, while connecting on just 42 percent of his shots from the floor, including 37 percent from three after the All-Star break.
“How good was Lauri Markkanen during his All-Star season?” pic.twitter.com/LEMR3c1zE8
— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) August 2, 2025
Remember, Markkanen averaged 24.9 points and 8.6 rebounds while shooting 51 percent from the floor and 41 percent from three on a roster that also featured Sexton, Mike Conley, Kelly Olynyk, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley, and still the Jazz were two games below .500 at the All-Star break.
To lift this current roster to 30 wins would take a Herculean effort from Markkanen, perhaps even better than his first 54 games in a Jazz uniform.
The Big Decision
Now, here’s where this question gets particularly difficult.
If the Jazz found themselves trending toward at least a 30-win pace, several young players had breakout seasons, one of the rookies looked like a long-term fit, and Markkanen had returned to his All-Star form, would it be better to trade him at his peak value, even if it means resetting the timeline once again, or start moving forward with the exiting roster that is finally beginning to bear fruit?
With only one draft before the team’s debt to the Thunder is extinguished, the growing disparity between Markkanen’s age (28) and the rest of the team’s core, and the hypothetical that some of those young players had elevated their games, my guess would be that the team would capitalize on the All-Star forward’s trade value in order to hold onto the pick.
As Markkanen has shown, his play can vary year-to-year, and selling high on a player for a team that is still deep in a rebuild in order to add more assets while retaining a top-eight selection makes good basketball sense.
Make no mistake, trading Markkanen would be a tough pill to swallow for the Jazz and would represent yet another step backward, but it could clear the path to take two steps forward.
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Ben Anderson is the author of the Jazz Mailbag, a Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports, the author of the Jazz Mailbag, and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 10-12p with Jake Scott on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone. Find Ben on Twitter at @BensHoops, on Instagram @BensHoops, or on BlueSky.
