2024 Big 12 Football Bowl Projections Following Week 9

SALT LAKE CITY – The middle of the Big 12 is still a lot of mush. BYU and Iowa State are on a collision course to being a pair of undefeated teams to meet in the Big 12 title game.

The odds of both doing so are at 8.6% and 7.8% per ESPN’s Football Power Index, which ranks third and fourth in the league in terms of winning out.

The other two are Kansas State and Colorado who both have just one conference loss and are ready to pounce to get into the top two and earn a championship game berth if either BYU or Iowa State falter.

Beyond those four teams, there are five with two league losses, making a very messy middle within the conference.

Oklahoma State, Utah Out Of Big 12 Bowl Projections This Week

As the season moves along the bowl projections are turning upside down. Oklahoma State and Utah were both locks to make a bowl game in the preseason. Now, after Week 9 of games, the Cowboys and Utes are on the outside looking into bowl games.

Utah is 4-4 and only needs to win two games with four left, but the loss to Houston this weekend was their best chance to get to five wins and one step closer to a bowl game.

Their schedule still has games against BYU, Iowa State, UCF, and Colorado. The odds of winning two of those four seem unlikely with Utah’s inability to score on offense. ESPN’s FPI gives Utah just a 42.6% chance to reach bowl eligibility.

Colorado’s turnaround is nearly complete as the team is bowl-eligible in Year 2 of Deion Sanders takeover at Boulder, and this will be the third time since 2016 that the Buffs are going to a bowl game.

For the first time since 2016, the Buffs are bowling 🎳#Big12FB | @CUBuffsFootball pic.twitter.com/bSe8ojggUX

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) October 27, 2024

This week, 12 teams are heading to the postseason, including two into the playoff field, with the addition of Baylor after its 38-28 win over Oklahoma State to improve to 4-4.

Previous Big 12 Bowl Projections: Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Thursday, December 26
5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Matchup:  Nebraska vs. Baylor

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Friday, December 27
12:00 or 3:30, ESPN
Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Matchup: Navy vs. West Virginia

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Friday, December 27
7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Matchup: Arkansas vs. Cincinnati

DIRECTV Holiday Bowl

Friday, December 27
8:00 p.m. ET, FOX
Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Matchup: Cal vs. Arizona State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Friday, December 27
10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Reliant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Arizona

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Saturday, December 28
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Matchup: Pitt vs. Colorado

Valero Alamo Bowl

Saturday, December 28
7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Matchup: Washington State vs. Kansas State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, December 28
9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Matchup: Oregon State vs. Texas Tech

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl Projection

Tuesday, December 31
2:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
Matchup: Syracuse vs. Arizona State

Texas Bowl

Tuesday, December 31
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Matchup: LSU vs. TCU

Texas A&M Enters The Playoff Chat

Conference races matter in the new 12-team College Football Playoff since the top-five conference champions get a spot in the field and the highest-ranked four get a bye to the quarterfinals. Realignment has made bloated conferences and better teams in the league, specifically the SEC by adding Texas and Oklahoma.

While it dominates the polls with Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee in the top 10, it is only Texas A&M that is undefeated in SEC play. Saturday night, they easily dispatched then-No. 8 LSU, and the Aggies do have a few close wins like a 26-21 victory over Bowling Green, but they also thumped Missouri by 31 points when they were ranked No. 9 at the time.

𝓥𝓲𝓬𝓽𝓸𝓻𝔂 𝓥𝓲𝓫𝓮𝓼 #GigEm | @TurtleboxAudio pic.twitter.com/XzNYCA5FpQ

— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) October 27, 2024

Since their loss to Notre Dame in Week 1, Texas A&M has won seven in a row and one of the hottest teams in all of college football. By being on a winning streak and leading the SEC, the Aggies at this point in time earn a top-four seed in the College Football Playoff bracket this week.

In the Group of Five race, Boise State earned a big win by defeating UNLV, 29-24, and strengthening its grip on that spot. Navy fell from the ranks of the undefeated with a blowout loss to Notre Dame and is no longer even one of the first four out.

The final undefeated team from outside the Power Four is Army but the Black Knights were off this week and are the first team out.

Quarterfinal Games

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8/9 Winner

No. 2 Miami vs. No. 7/10 Winner

No. 3 BYU  vs. No. 6/11 Winner

No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 5/12 Winner

Opening Round Games at campus sites

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Georgia

No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Ohio State

No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Penn State

No. 9  Clemson at No. 8 Notre Dame

First Four out: Indiana, Pitt, Tennessee, Alabama

Next Group of Five: Army, Memphis, Tulane, Louisiana

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