Opinion: CFP Explanation On BYU’s Big Drop Remains Confusing
Nov 20, 2024, 11:36 AM | Updated: 11:37 am
PROVO, Utah – BYU football had a big drop in the College Football Playoff rankings this week.
The Cougars fell eight spots from No. 6 to No. 14 after losing to 4-6 Kansas at home last week.
BYU’s drop didn’t come as a shock. In the KSL Sports Playoff Top 25 projection, we had BYU falling to No. 14. So it’s not a complete surprise. It’s just par for the course with a Playoff Committee that gives harsher critiques of programs outside the SEC and Big Ten.
Beyond falling to No. 14, it was noteworthy that BYU was ranked behind Group of Five favorite Boise State (No. 12) and SMU (No. 13), a team they beat.
During his weekly teleconference with the media, College Football Playoff Committee Chairman Warde Manuel was asked by Ralph D. Russo of The Athletic about BYU’s big drop.
“What went into that ranking, and how much of it was also not just the loss but the fact that BYU had some great escapes over the last couple of weeks, as well?”
College Football Playoff Committee Chairman explains BYU’s drop
Manuel replied, “That is the answer. They had a close win against SMU. They had a great win against Kansas State but then a close win over Utah, a close win over Oklahoma State, and then they had a tough loss against Kansas at home. It was just something the committee had been monitoring all along.”
That’s understandable. Since the Oklahoma State game on October 18, three of BYU’s last four games have been close calls. There’s no questioning that.
But Manuel’s continued comments on BYU made things a little more confusing on why they fell eight spots.
“Look, we give a lot of credit when teams win, and so we don’t penalize teams for winning close or winning too big, in other words, but we do value wins, so that’s where we saw BYU,” added Manuel. “But given some of those games that they played and the close wins that they had, it just was an indicator that some of the teams that were below them in the rankings last week should move ahead of them is how the committee assessed BYU.”
Don’t penalize teams for winning close. It seems that 9-1 BYU did get knocked for close wins.
“Value Wins”
Also, “we do value wins.”
How does that explain why BYU fell behind SMU? In week two, BYU faced an SMU team that played Kevin Jennings for all but three series in Dallas.
Bumping this just for fun. https://t.co/FDHzqIMU7l
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) November 20, 2024
Despite the drop in the rankings, BYU remains in the projected College Football Playoff field as the No. 12 seed because it was the fifth-highest conference champion. Their reward? A potential matchup against No. 2 (in the rankings) Ohio State in Columbus.
Warde Manuel is in a no-win situation. The media wants direct answers to a fluid situation, as a lot of football is left to be played.
But why not just say that, at this point of the season, with the data we have in front of us, the committee thinks all of the two-loss SEC teams are better, and we value Boise State’s loss to Oregon more than BYU’s loss to 4-6 Kansas?
They explained two weeks ago that Miami passes the “eye test” compared to BYU. So, the Hurricanes remain six spots in front of BYU despite having the same 9-1 record with a weaker strength of schedule (No. 59 in Sagarin) compared to BYU (No. 31 SOS in Sagarin).
The Hurricanes have a similar strength of record at No. 9 but are still lower than BYU at No. 8. The “Game Control” metric, another stat that the committee often points to, gives BYU a four-spot edge (No. 15) over Miami (No. 19).
Losing to Georgia Tech is apparently more impressive than falling to Kansas. That’s good enough for a six-spot gap in the rankings.
The easy response for everyone to point to is for BYU to win out, and then the rankings will sort themselves out.
Well, is that honestly the case from how this committee ranks BYU?
Is winning enough for BYU football to overcome hurdles?
If BYU wins at No. 21 Arizona State, will the Sun Devils remain in the Top 25? Probably not. As we’ve seen for BYU, once a quality team drops out of the rankings, it can be easy to diminish the victory (i.e., Kansas State).
A win over Houston in the regular season finale won’t help BYU’s cause.
Then, hypothetically, if BYU reaches the Big 12 Championship game against a Top 25 Colorado and wins, does that propel them in front of Boise State? It should.
Nightmare College Football Playoff scenario for BYU and Big 12
In this scenario, BYU would be a champion from a power conference. But the committee quietly ranked UNLV in the backend of the Top 25 this week at No. 24.
If Boise and UNLV square off in the Mountain West Championship Game for a rematch, that could be another quality victory for Boise, perhaps enough to keep them in front of the Big 12 champion.
Also, what if No. 19 and undefeated Army pulls off an unlikely upset over No. 6 Notre Dame this week? Do they leapfrog BYU?
With how the committee set up this week’s rankings, America’s finest are within reach to do so.
The Black Knights would also have an American Conference Championship Game against a Top 25 foe in Tulane in two weeks.
In that scenario, two Group of Five champions could be in front of a Big 12 Champion BYU, leaving the Big 12 out of the Playoffs altogether. The five highest-ranked Conference Champions receive automatic bids in the 12-team Playoffs. BYU would then fall into the at-large pool.
Is a course reset coming?
The committee resets the rankings every week. Last week’s ranking saw BYU move up from No. 9 to No. 6 after a close win over Utah. Maybe there could be a course correction from the committee if BYU gets a big win in Tempe.
Still, these weekly Playoff rankings leave many more questions than answers.
Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.
