Odds Still In BYU’s Favor To Make Bowl Game
Oct 2, 2019, 12:05 PM | Updated: Oct 4, 2019, 7:25 pm
Quarterback Zach Wilson #11 (MVP) and Head Coach Kalani Sitake of the BYU Cougars celebrate during the awards ceremony at the conclusion of the game against the Western Michigan Broncos at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on December 21, 2018 at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. BYU won the game 49-18. (Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images)
(Photo by Loren Orr/Getty Images)
PROVO, Utah – BYU football is projected to win five of its remaining seven games on the 2019 schedule. Five wins would secure the Cougars a record greater than .500 and a spot in the Hawaii Bowl.
According to ESPN’s FPI, the Cougars are forecasted to finish the regular season with a record of 6.9 wins and 5.1 losses.
FPI estimates that BYU will finish the year with wins over South Florida, Liberty, Idaho State, UMass, and San Diego State. It also calculates that the Cougars will lose against 16th ranked Boise State and Utah State.
What is FPI?
FPI stands for ESPN’s College Football Power Index. It was created in 2013 “as a way to measure team strength and predict game and season outcomes.”
According to ESPN, “Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.”
“Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.” – ESPN
Prior to losing against Washington in the fourth game of the season, FPI saw the Cougars as the favorite in each of the games remaining on their 2019 schedule.
Impact of Ty'Son injury: #BYU is now projected to lose three of their remaining eight games according to ESPN FPI. Last week, BYU was favored in final 8. pic.twitter.com/vMBvAph89h
— Mitch Harper KSL (@Mitch_Harper) September 22, 2019
After a 28-21 loss at Toledo, the Cougars now sit with a 2-3 record and a probability of losing two of their next three games.
BYU’s Final 7 Games
Here are the win probabilities for BYU football on their 2019 schedule according to ESPN’s FPI (as of October 2, 2019).
August 29: vs. Utah – Lost 30-12 (preseason – 39.5%)
September 7: at Tennessee – Won 29-26 in 2OT (preseason – 18.6%)
September 14: vs. USC – Won 30-27 in OT (preseason – 45.4%)
September 21: vs. Washington Lost 45-19 (preseason – 35.8%)
September 28: at Toledo – Lost 28-21 (preseason – 64.6%)
October 12: at South Florida – 72.5% (preseason – 64.2%)
October 19: vs. Boise State – 42.7% (preseason – 57.3%)
November 2: at Utah State – 41.7% (preseason – 74.5%)
November 9: vs. Liberty – 89.4% (preseason – 94.1%)
November 16: vs. Idaho State – 95.4% (preseason – 98.1%)
November 23: at UMass – 96.5% (preseason – 91.3%)
November 30: at San Diego State – 50.1% (preseason – 67.8%)
MORE ON BYU FOOTBALL:
- BYU Football Projected To Win Eight Games By ESPN Football Power Index
- Zach Wilson Out At Least Three Games With Hand Injury
- Sitake: Jaren Hall Will Be BYU’s Starting QB Against South Florida
- Dual-Threat Jaren Hall Prepared From Young Age To Be Starting QB
- Zach Wilson Injured, BYU’s Comeback Attempt Falls Short At Toledo
The Cougars need to win four of the seven games left on their schedule to become bowl eligible.
BYU will be without starting quarterback Zach Wilson until at least the Liberty game on Saturday, November 9.
Is #BYU's bowl eligibility on the line with Zach Wilson out for a few weeks?
— KSL's UnRivaled (@KSLunrivaled) October 2, 2019
If BYU loses their next three games without Wilson, the Cougars will need to win four straight to finish with a .500 record and a berth to the Hawai’i Bowl.
The Hawai’i Bowl and BYU have a contract in place where the Cougs will play in Honolulu on Christmas Eve if they finish with at least a 6-6 record in the regular season.
Same tradition, new look! #SoFi #SoFiHawaiibowl #CFB #Sports#Honolulu #Hawaii pic.twitter.com/KmxyySqkJg
— SoFi Hawai'i Bowl (@HawaiiBowl) September 9, 2019
The Cougars are currently sizable favorites against Liberty, Idaho State, and UMass.
BYU has lost against Utah State in consecutive seasons and they haven’t beaten the Boise State Broncos since 2015.
If they experience a loss at USF, BYU’s bowl bid might be in make-or-break mode against SDSU in the regular-season finale.
Kalani Sitake led BYU to bowl victories in 2016 and 2018. The Cougars did not qualify for the postseason in 2017 when they finished with a 4-9 record.
Based on ESPN’s FPI, Sitake will finish 7-5 and go bowling for the third time at the conclusion of the regular season.
