BYU/Virginia Game Day Preview Plus Score Prediction

PROVO, Utah – The sixth meeting all-time for BYU vs Virginia features the return of Bronco Mendenhall back to Provo. BYU is back in the national rankings after they got a win last week against Washington State. The Cougars check in at No. 25 in the latest AP Top 25.

GAME NOTES 📝: ʙʏᴜ ᴠs ᴠɪʀɢɪɴɪᴀ pic.twitter.com/kFEjTEaf25

— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) October 29, 2021

This is BYU’s sixth game this season against a Power 5 opponent. It’s the most P5 teams that BYU has faced in program history through their first nine games.

Today’s matchup is the first of a three-game series between BYU and Virginia. BYU is scheduled to make a return trip to Virginia in 2023. Then the Cavaliers come back to Provo in 2025. Keep in mind, BYU moves to the Big 12 Conference beginning in 2023.

Virginia leads the all-time series 3-2. The average score in these meetings is 31-30 in favor of the Hoos.

No. 25 BYU vs. Virginia

Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. (MT)

TV: ESPN2

Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM – Pregame starts at 6 p.m.)

Now it’s time for the 3-2-1 Game Day Preview for today’s game in Provo.

Three Gameday Thoughts

1. Bronco is back

Many memories have flowed through my mind and many Cougar fans’ minds with the return of Bronco Mendenhall and his staff that hold so many BYU connections. Mendenhall meant a lot to BYU football during the 13 years he coached for the program.

He inherited a BYU program that was experiencing unprecedented struggles both on and off the field. However, under his leadership and coaching, BYU became an instant winner with Mendenhall. In total, he won 99 games in 11 seasons.

The Bronco Mendenhall era at #BYU produced a lot of memorable moments.#BYUFootball @kslsports https://t.co/oHMdgM3rh7

— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) October 28, 2021

When he left in 2015, many were surprised. People thought Mendenhall’s style could never work at a Power 5 school. But Mendenhall himself always said he wouldn’t coach at a school that doesn’t have a greater purpose than just winning games. Virginia does have high academic standards and it gave Mendenhall and his football family a chance to build up a program again. Rather than trying to pass the levels of success that fans had set for him.

It’s all worked out for both parties. BYU has a rising coach in Kalani Sitake and Mendenhall has turned Virginia into a consistent bowl team while also contending for the ACC Coastal.

BYU is expected to have some video tribute on the big screens before kickoff. Mendenhall, who never wanted this game to be played, probably doesn’t want any sort of tribute as he wants to focus on the task at hand. But it’s only fitting to give a tribute for all the time he spent at BYU.

📍Provo, UT#GoHoos | #THEStandard pic.twitter.com/Pffz1XSXbT

— Virginia Football (@UVAFootball) October 29, 2021

2. Shootout feels likely

Both teams are confident their offenses can put up some points this week. Virginia is the No. 2 passing offense in the country. BYU has talented skill players, but they haven’t been consistent enough to be viewed among the top offenses in college football.

This game has the makings of being a good old fashion shootout. Don’t be surprised if this thing gets near the 40s for both teams.

3. Injuries

When you get to the final Saturday of October, there are not many teams in college football that can’t say they aren’t navigating injuries. BYU has had many injuries this year that have forced them to dig into their depth more than expected.

Center James Empey left the field last week in the win over Washington State on crutches. I’m expecting to see Connor Pay replace him today at center. Pay arrived at BYU projected to be an offensive tackle, but he has a bright future ahead of him at the center position.

Offensive tackle Harris LaChance has been practicing throughout the week. He’s getting closer to a return. If BYU can get him back, that would be a big boost getting the starting right tackle back into the lineup.

After the Wazzu win, Kalani Sitake said wide receiver Gunner Romney was probably “doubtful” after injuring the same leg he had a setback against Arizona in the opener back in September. But no further update was provided during the week as Sitake deferred to his coordinators for updates, then Aaron Roderick deferred to Sitake.

Two BYU vs Virginia Questions

1. Which team is more motivated to win this game?

Aside from the Bronco Mendenhall storyline, there’s not much at stake in this game. BYU has already clinched bowl eligibility, same with Virginia. In addition, this is a non-conference matchup for the Hoos, so it has no bearing on the ACC Coastal Division race.

Who’s going to be more inspired to win this game?

The coach angle can get players to buy-in. Mendenhall is great at telling a story to his players for a given game to get them inspired. For BYU, many of the players on the roster, including Jaren Hall, were once recruited by Mendenhall. They might show inspired play because Mendenhall didn’t continue pursuing many of them when he left for Virginia. We shall see.

2. How many fans will be in attendance tonight at LES?

I’m surprised this game ended up getting a late-night kick with Virginia being an east coast team. With a late kickoff plus a lot of trick-or-treating will probably take place tonight for the Halloween holiday, it will be interesting to see what type of attendance we see tonight at LaVell Edwards Stadium.

Attendance for BYU-Virginia will be interesting on Saturday night.

Halloween plus a late night game. Will the appeal of seeing Bronco and the former #BYU guys be enough to get at least 60K again for a fifth straight home game? #BYUFootball @kslsports

— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) October 29, 2021

BYU is the top team out west for home game attendance so far this season. They are the only school that has produced 60,000+ fans each week at home games this season. If BYU fans produce 60K again tonight, that would be an impressive turnout.

One Score Prediction

The turnover margin will be the difference in this game. Both offenses are going to get their fair share of yards and put up some points, but getting an extra possession or two will be the difference.

This will be a close football game that will come down to the wire in the fourth quarter. But I expect BYU’s defense to be at least one possession better than Virginia, who features QB Brennan Armstrong, the nation’s number one passer.

Jaren Hall and Tyler Allgeier will have big games for BYU, and I’m calling for the Cougars to pull out the win.

BYU 41, Virginia 38

Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and host of the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (Saturday from 12-3 pm) on KSL Newsradio. Follow him on Twitter: @Mitch_Harper.

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