No. 9 BYU Game Day Preview, Score Prediction Against Utah
Nov 9, 2024, 1:59 AM
SALT LAKE CITY – BYU vs Utah. Say less.
That statement alone conjures up a lot of intensity. The stakes are even higher when one of the teams is undefeated and knocking on the door of a College Football Playoff bid.
No. 9 BYU at 8-0 this season rolls into Rice-Eccles Stadium for the first time since 2018 tonight to face 4-4 Utah.
No. 9 BYU vs. Utah
Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. (MST)
Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM) — Extended pregame coverage begins at 6 p.m.
Three Game Day Thoughts
1. Performances in BYU/Utah games define legacies
The BYU/Utah game can turn unknowns into household names or great players into legends with a memorable showing in this rivalry.
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has an opportunity to etch his BYU legacy with a potential win over Utah. It’s not solely on Retzlaff, as this BYU team has shown this year, being a complimentary squad. But based on all of the national attention the Corona, California signal-caller has been receiving lately, many eyes will be on him in this one.
If he delivers a BYU victory, any Cougar fans who still aren’t bought into him (how could that be possible at this point) will be all in and hold him in high regard.
The same goes for head coach Kalani Sitake.
What are your favorite #BYU moments in the rivalry against Utah?
📸: Courtesy of Deseret News pic.twitter.com/kHT9ExhA0F
— Mitch Harper (@Mitch_Harper) November 7, 2024
BYU hasn’t won two consecutive games against Utah since 2007.
Sitake has a chance to take down his mentor in Salt Lake. Even though Utah is down right now, that would be a great moment and win on Sitake’s coaching legacy.
2. Physicality is on the mind
Tonight’s game is going to be won in the trenches.
That’s how it goes in this rivalry.
When Utah reeled off nine consecutive victories over BYU, the Utes always had the edge in the trench. In 2021, BYU was the more physical football team, and no coincidence, BYU took down Utah.
BYU’s offensive and defensive lines have improved a lot this season.
The Cougars will be without Connor Pay on the offensive line, but Bruce Mitchell has done an excellent job replacing him the past month.
They will have their toughest test to date this season as they face a Utah defensive line that is getting healthy for the first time in a while.
The Utes should have Junior Tafuna, Connor O’Toole, and Keanu Tanuvasa on Saturday night. If BYU keeps this Utah defensive line in check, it could be a long night for the Utes.
BYU’s defensive line will have some good battles with Utah’s offensive tackles Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu. Still, Utah’s interior offensive line has been prone to giving up pressure in recent weeks. That bodes well for Blake Mangelson and John Nelson, the heart and soul of BYU’s defensive front.
3. Don’t allow Utah’s defense to score points
Beyond winning the turnover margin, which is crucial in every game, BYU has to avoid giving up a Pick-Six or Scoop-and-Score to Utah’s defense. In games BYU has lost to Kyle Whittingham-led Utah teams, you can point to many examples of BYU’s offense giving up points to the Ute defense.
For a Utah team with one of the worst offenses in the Big 12, force them to generate all of Utah’s points.
BYU has done an excellent job this season in winning the turnover margin. They enter tonight’s matchup, tied for 16th nationally in turnover margin.
Two BYU vs Utah Questions
1. How will BYU respond to new wrinkles Utah throws at them coming out of the bye week?
Last month, BYU faced a struggling Oklahoma State team coming off a bye week. The Pokes, led by coach Mike Gundy, tossed new wrinkles at BYU’s defense that caught the Cougars off guard for stretches of that game.
Could we see something similar tonight from Utah?
“We’ve got to prepare for anything that they can throw at us,” BYU head coach Kalani Sitake said. “I mean, they’ve had an extra week, so there’s a lot of different things that we have to probably over-prepare for, but that’s OK. I’d rather be that way.”
Will the big change be at quarterback if the Utes start Brandon Rose instead of Isaac Wilson? The class of 2022 signee was a big-armed prospect with dual-threat abilities. He could give Utah a different look offensively than what BYU has seen from the Utes on film this season. If Utah throws out new looks, will BYU be able to adjust quickly?
An early strong start from BYU will be critical in this matchup.
2. Will BYU have success running the football against Utah’s defense?
Sophomore running back LJ Martin has been impressive in BYU’s past two games. The El Paso, Texas native has rushed for more than 100 yards.
He has the perfect temperament for a high-emotion game like BYU and Utah. Martin will be calm as if it were just another game.
BYU has shown a tendency to turn to Martin early in road games. The SMU and UCF games are examples of where they turned to him early in the first quarter to set a tone. If Martin finds success early in this matchup against Utah’s defensive front, which is one of the best in the Big 12, that will be a significant development in this game.
The good news for BYU is that they should have their full stable of running backs behind Martin to help carry the load. Hinckley Ropati, Sione I. Moa, Miles Davis, and Enoch Nawahine.
One Score Prediction for BYU vs Utah
I’m not surprised BYU is only a three-point favorite against the Utes. The two teams’ statistical profiles are very similar. However, unlike Utah this season, BYU has found ways to win regardless of the circumstances.
That’s why there should be more confidence from prognosticators for BYU heading into this matchup. The hostile environment shouldn’t faze them.
BYU’s defense will be the difference in this game. I look for them to set up BYU’s offense with some short fields as we’ve witnessed against K-State, Arizona, and UCF. Retzlaff and the BYU capitalize and get into the 20’s, which is a scoring area Utah probably doesn’t want this game to get into.
BYU moves on and gets their first win in Salt Lake City since 2006.
BYU 24, Utah 17
Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.
