Utah Jazz projected to finish with bottom five record, keep pick

After losing three straight games and eight of their last 10, the Jazz have begun to solidify their place near the bottom of the NBA standings.

Related: Jazz fall to Kings despite career-night from Cody Williams

Jazz nearing playoff elimination

With Sunday’s loss to Sacramento, the Jazz fell to 20-48, ahead of only the Kings (18-51) in the Western Conference standings.

The Golden State Warriors and Portland Trail Blazers each have 32 wins and currently hold the final two spots in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament race.

NBA STANDINGS UPDATE‼️

▪️ OKC (#1 in West) wins 8th straight
▪️ NYK (#3 in East) wins 3rd straight
▪️ PHI rises to #8 in East pic.twitter.com/jRAfoyKxQX

— NBA (@NBA) March 16, 2026

Because both Golden State and Portland own the season tiebreakers over Utah, the magic number for the Jazz to be eliminated from postseason contention is two.

Any combination of two Jazz losses and Trail Blazers wins, or two Jazz losses and Warriors wins, would officially eliminate Utah from playoff eligibility and lock the franchise into the lottery for the fourth straight season.

Jazz trending toward league’s fifth-worst record

With less than a month remaining in the season, the Jazz own the league’s fifth-worst record, with some separation on both sides of the standings.

Idle until Wednesday night in Minnesota, the Jazz sit 2.5 games ahead of the Kings and Brooklyn Nets (17-50), who currently hold the third- and fourth-worst records in the NBA.

Win-Win for the idle Jazz tonight: pic.twitter.com/YgbLwiAd5S

— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) March 16, 2026

Utah is also 2.0 games behind the New Orleans Pelicans (22-46), who have the league’s sixth-worst record, and 3.0 games behind the Dallas Mavericks (23-45).

Among those teams, the Jazz face the most difficult remaining schedule, followed by Dallas, New Orleans, Sacramento, and Brooklyn.

How do final standings affect draft odds?

To retain this year’s first-round selection, the Jazz’s draft pick must land between Nos. 1 and 8 after the lottery.

If the pick falls to No. 9, it will convey to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the Derrick Favors trade in 2021.

The only way the Jazz can be guaranteed to keep the pick is by finishing with one of the four worst records in the league entering lottery night.

Because only four teams move up in the lottery, the lowest the Jazz could fall from that position would be No. 8, ensuring the pick remains in Utah.

Also worth noting…

With SAC out of the way, Utah has the fourth-toughest strength of schedule in the final month of the season. pic.twitter.com/5MV95xoVHJ

— Chandler Holt (@CHoltSports) March 16, 2026

However, even if the Jazz finish with the league’s fifth-worst record, they would enter lottery night with strong odds of keeping the selection.

At fifth-worst, the Jazz would have a 99.4 percent chance of the pick landing between Nos. 1 and 8, and just a 0.6 percent chance of it dropping to No. 9.

If the Jazz were to pass either Dallas or New Orleans over the final 14 games, their odds of keeping the pick would drop to 96.2 percent, and if they leapfrog both teams, the odds would fall to 85.8 percent.

In the event of a tie in the standings, lottery odds are split evenly, with a coin toss determining which team receives the higher selection if neither moves into the top four.

Where are the Jazz projected to finish?

With the regular season ending April 12, three popular websites that simulate the remainder of the season project the Jazz to finish with the league’s fifth-worst record.

Basketball-Reference projects the Jazz to finish at 24.1-57.9, two wins ahead of Brooklyn and three wins behind New Orleans.

TeamRankings projects Utah at 23.7 wins and 58.3 losses, two wins ahead of both Brooklyn and Sacramento and three wins back of the Pelicans.

ESPN is the least optimistic, projecting the Jazz to finish 23.4-58.6, just 1.5 wins ahead of the Kings and three wins behind New Orleans.

The NBA draft lottery will be held on May 11.