Jazz Mailbag: Can We Predict Ace Bailey’s Star Potential Already?

With that said, I should note that in the NBA, the safest prediction is that (insert almost any young player’s name) won’t become a star.

The reality is simple: very few NBA players reach star status. Injuries, play style, and elite competition make it extremely difficult for any young player to rise above his peers, so betting on stardom is usually a fool’s errand.

Still, in the spirit of the question, let’s examine what Ace Bailey has done through his first 25 games and what that might mean for his future.

We can start with a basic search: teenagers who, over their first 25 games, matched Bailey’s current averages—at least 10.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists while shooting 43 percent from the field and 35 percent from three, with at least 10 three‑point attempts during that stretch.

Since 1975, only five players have met those marks, including Bailey.

Two of them, LaMelo Ball and Kyrie Irving, became stars. Former Jazzman Collin Sexton developed into a solid NBA role player.

The other two are Bailey and current New Orleans Pelicans rookie Jeremiah Fears.

This specific query may look like cherry‑picking, but it’s actually a straightforward comparison of points, rebounds, and assists with a reasonable expectation of shooting efficiency.

Now, I also rely on a more rudimentary system for evaluating a rookie’s potential. My rule of thumb: during a player’s first year, his best game usually gives you a realistic sense of his potential ceiling.

That doesn’t mean he’ll reach that ceiling consistently, but it does show what he’s capable of.

Using that rule—and acknowledging we only have 25 games—I think Bailey has shown multiple examples of star upside, particularly in his three games with at least 20 points.

Here’s a list of rookie teenagers who scored 20 points at least three times in their first 25 games over the last decade:

LaMelo Ball, Paolo Banchero, RJ Barrett, Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Green, Scoot Henderson, Tyler Herro, Jaren Jackson Jr., Kevin Knox, Jamal Murray, Jahlil Okafor, Collin Sexton, Dennis Smith Jr., Jabari Smith Jr., Victor Wembanyama, and Coby White.

Among those 17 players, seven are already All‑Stars, four are still too early to judge, three became solid‑to‑high‑level starters, and three are generally considered busts.

So what do these two (admittedly flawed) searches tell us?

First, several of the best teenage players in NBA history—Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett—don’t show up anywhere in these filters.

Second, among the players who do show up, roughly half became stars and half did not.

In short, early‑career production—especially during the first 25 games—rarely offers a clear correlation to a player’s long‑term trajectory, good or bad.

For now, Bailey has shown he’s a gifted shooter with excellent physical tools and a better‑than‑advertised basketball IQ. He still needs to improve his finishing at the rim, ball-handling, and defensive awareness.

Will he become a star? I don’t know—and anyone claiming they can predict his future is lying.