Utah Jazz Mailbag: Are The Jazz Winning Too Many Games?
Dec 31, 2024, 2:32 PM
Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy speaks to Lauri Markkanen #23 (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)
(Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)
SALT LAKE CITY – Welcome to the Utah Jazz mailbag where this week we look at whether the team has won too many games this early in the season.
Each week we will send out a prompt on X and BlueSky asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.
Then, we’ll respond to as many as we can in that week’s mailbag.
Mailbag: Are The Jazz Winning Too Many Games?
Do you think the team has to win occasionally just for moral or to show young players that playing the right way pays off?
The tanking race has become so tight this year, it feels like getting even one win right now is disastrous for lottery odds.
— Jake The Lynx (@jakethelynx.bsky.social) December 30, 2024 at 11:53 AM
Question: The tanking race has become so tight this year, it feels like getting even one win right now is disastrous for lottery odds.
Answer: With the Jazz clearly not competing for the playoffs, fans have been rightfully tracking the team’s standings as they hope this year will finally deliver the lottery luck they’ve hoped for each of the last two seasons.
After selecting ninth and tenth in the last two drafts, concerns that the team isn’t doing enough to ensure a top-five draft pick are at an all-time high.
With that in mind, let’s look at where the Jazz are entering the New Year compared to where they were each of the last two seasons under Will Hardy, and what it may tell us about how they’ll finish the season.
Entering 2024, @utahjazz owned a 14-29 record, 4th worst in the West. Finished with 4th worst record in the West.
Entering 2023, Jazz owned a 19-20 record, 6th worst in the West. Finished with 4th worst record in the West.
Entering 2025, they sit at 7-24, 2nd worst in the West.
— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) December 31, 2024
Heading into 2025, the Jazz sit at 7-24, owning the second-worst record in the West ahead of the 5-28 New Orleans Pelicans.
Last year the Jazz were 14-19 through December 31, owning the fourth-worst record in the West ahead of the 10-22 Memphis Grizzles, the 9-22 Portland Trail Blazers, and the 5-27 San Antonio Spurs.
After their poor starts in 2023, it should be no surprise that those same four teams finished with the bottom four records in the Western Conference, with only the 21-61 Trail Blazers and 22-60 Spurs swapping spots in the final standings.
Similarly, the bottom four teams in the East as of December 31, 2023 (Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets, and Toronto Raptors) were also the four worst teams in the conference at season’s end, though unlike the West, the final order did not change.
NBA STANDINGS UPDATE ‼️
▪️ NYK wins 8th straight
▪️ CLE wins 7th straight
▪️ PHI wins 4th straight
▪️ LAC wins 3rd straight, moves to 5th in WestDownload the NBA App for more: https://t.co/pBKIAWOrdI pic.twitter.com/tLjQBet0Qe
— NBA (@NBA) December 31, 2024
During the 2022-23 campaign, the bottom four teams in the West at the New Year were the Los Angeles Lakers, the Oklahoma City Thunder, the San Antonio Spurs, and the Houston Rockets.
At season’s end, both the Lakers and Thunder had climbed into the Play-In Tournament seedings, while the Jazz and Trail Blazers joined the Rockets and Spurs at the bottom of the West.
In the East, the Pistons, Hornets, Orlando Magic, and Wizards held the bottom four seeds on December 31, 2023, and held that order over the final four months of the season.
So, what do the last two seasons tell us about how to interpret a team’s standings at the New Year, and what it says about how they’ll finish the season?
I know Jazz fans are worried about the team winning too many games right now.
I’d say enjoy them whenever they come at the moment, because when they hand this over to the young guys fully after the trade deadline, they’re going to be few and far between.
— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) December 31, 2024
Over the last two years, of the 16 teams with the worst records in the East and West at New Year’s, only two avoided a bottom-four record at the end of the regular season.
And, of those 16 teams, 10 teams did not see their conference seeding change between January 1 and the final day of the regular season.
Essentially, teams that start bad, stay bad, and only teams who make major in-season trades (see the 2022 Lakers) or undergo rapid development from young players (see 2023’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and 2024’s Victor Wembanyama) experience dramatic shifts in their standings over the final four months of the regular season.
What does that mean for the Jazz?
Barring an unforeseen trade that brings an influx of talent to Utah, or a sudden developmental explosion from one of the young players on the roster, recent history tells us the Jazz are almost certain to finish with one of the four worst records in the West, and are more likely to finish with the second-worst record than they are to leap the team ahead of them in the standings.
So, with the Jazz, Raptors, and Hornets all sitting on seven wins, and the Pelicans and Wizards both sitting on five, don’t expect a significant shakeup in the standings over the final 50ish games of the regular season, and hope the lottery balls finally bounce your team’s way.
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Ben Anderson is the Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 10-12p with Jake Scott on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone. Find Ben on Twitter at @BensHoops, on Instagram @BensHoops, or on BlueSky.
