Jazz Mailbag: What Happens If Jazz Fall To Fifth In Lottery?

SALT LAKE CITY – Welcome to the Utah Jazz mailbag, where this week we look at how fans should feel if the team drops to fifth in the draft lottery.

Each week, we will send out a prompt on X and BlueSky asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.

Then, we’ll respond to as many as we can in that week’s Jazz mailbag.

Jazz Mailbag: What Happens If Lottery Pick Falls To Five?

I’m mentally preparing myself for the Jazz to land the 5th pick. Please talk me off the ledge… anyone at 5 who moves the meter?

— WhittOwnsRiley (@teverett921) April 14, 2025

Question: I’m mentally preparing myself for the Jazz to land the 5th pick. Please talk me off the ledge… anyone at 5 who moves the meter?

Answer: A few weeks back, I answered a mailbag question about the difference between drafting third and drafting fifth, and I won’t walk back my conclusion.

It’s far better to draft third than it is fifth, and if the Jazz were to experience the worst-case scenario on May 12, dropping to five rather than landing in the top four, fans would be wise to temper their expectations.

Jazz Mailbag: How Is The Gap Between The Third and Fifth Picks?

But with that said, there is a long history of players who “move the meter” that were drafted fifth, and fans should still be excited about the possibility of adding the team’s next All-Star.

From a raw numbers standpoint, here’s a look at how fifth overall picks have fared in the NBA dating back to 1979, or what I consider the modern era of the league, and when the Jazz first moved to Utah.

With the 5th pick in the 1995 #NBADraft, the @Timberwolves select 19-year old Kevin Garnett.#20HoopClass Enshrinement: Saturday, May 15 pic.twitter.com/wg82TH3bHf

— NBA (@NBA) May 9, 2021

Of the 46 players selected at number five, 16 became All-Stars, or about 35 percent.

Of those same 46, 12 were multi-time All-Stars, or a little more than 25 percent.

Finally, of that group of 46 players, eight are already in the Hall of Fame, while Kevin Love has a decent shot to make it once he retires.

Here’s a look at the others, in reverse order of when they were drafted:

Dwyane Wade
Vince Carter
Ray Allen
Kevin Garnett
Mitch Richmond
Scottie Pippen
Charles Barkley
Sidney Moncrief

That would mean that since 1979, teams have had a 19.5 percent chance of drafting a future Hall of Famer when they own the fifth pick.

While the definition of “move the meter” may be subjective, it’s hard to argue that an NBA All-Star, much less a multi-time All-Star or Hall of Famer, doesn’t fit the bill.

And, when looking at non-All-Stars, players like Jason Richardson, Jeff Green, Kendall Gill, Jonas Valanciunas, Mike Miller, Isaiah Rider, LaPhonso Ellis, Ricky Rubio, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Suggs were above-average starters, if not borderline Stars in their prime.

It will be a critical summer for all six of the @UtahJazz‘s first and second-year players.

These are the specific areas each player needs to improve, according to head coach Will Hardy. #takenote https://t.co/NJuEGxUJWF

— KSL Sports (@kslsports) April 14, 2025

Including all of these names, over the last 46 years, teams have found at least a solid role player 56 percent of the time when drafting fifth.

Now, that also means that 44 percent of the time, or nearly half, these players fail to meet the expectation of a fifth overall pick.

That includes notable busts like Mario Hezonja, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Thomas Robinson, Jonathan Bender, Dante Exum, Sheldon Williams, and Kris Dunn.

Each of these players into the NBA with sky-high expectations, and failed to move the needle for the teams that drafted them.

Who Might Be Available At Five In The 2025 Draft?

Recognizing that every draft is different, who are some of the names that fans might need to be familiar with if the Jazz do fall to five on lottery night?

While there will be inevitable movement before draft night, over the last year, Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper Jr., Ace Bailey, and VJ Edgecombe have been the names most commonly mentioned at the top of the draft, and as of April 15, are expected to be off the board before the fifth selection.

From there, the most common names are Texas shooting guard Tre Johnson, Duke shooting guard Kon Knueppel, Duke center Khaman Maluach, Illinois combo guard Kasparas Jakucionis, Maryland center Derik Queen, and Oklahoma point guard Jeremiah Fears.

INSANE VIEW OF DERIK QUEEN’S GAME WINNER 🤯#MarchMadness @TerrapinHoops pic.twitter.com/lGpjOFQzzc

— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 24, 2025

Though teams should always draft the best player available, I don’t see the Jazz drafting a center with a top-five pick, and Walker Kessler potentially signing a contract extension this summer.

That could take Maluach, and to a lesser extent Queen (though I wouldn’t write him off entirely), off the table.

That leaves Johnson, Knueppel, Fears, and Jakucionis as names that could be in contention for the fifth pick in the Jazz slip in the lottery.

Johnson is one of the deadliest scorers in the draft and would add an element of shot creation (and making) from the perimeter that the Jazz haven’t had since they traded Donovan Mitchell.

Tre Johnson is such an underrated passer and his vision and playmaking is rarely discussed.. From live dribble skip passes, to throwing lobs or creating easy buckets for teammates getting downhill, Tre’s got more to his game than scoring. pic.twitter.com/EuwkAPaDuY

— Rafael Barlowe (@Barlowe500) March 3, 2025

Knueppel is also a dead-eye shooter, and has a more well-rounded game, but may lack the go-to scoring potential of Johnson.

Fears, though shiftier than Isaiah Collier, is a paint-breaking ball handler who also struggled to shoot the three in college, but may be too repetitive for the Jazz’s liking.

Jakucionas can play both backcourt positions, and is likely a better three-point shooter than his 31 percent success rate would indicate, but he’s prone to turning the ball over, and is an unproven defender.

At their best, each of these players has All-Star potential and can “move the meter” if developed correctly.

They also have flaws in their games that could drop them into the bust category if the stars don’t align.

Ultimately, fans should be hoping that the lottery balls give the Jazz the highest pick possible, but it won’t be a disaster if they fall to five.

Want to ask questions in next week’s Jazz mailbag? Give us a follow at @kslsports.

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Ben Anderson is the Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports, author of the Jazz Mailbag, and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 10-12p with Jake Scott on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone. Find Ben on Twitter at @BensHoops, on Instagram @BensHoops, or on BlueSky. 

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