Jazz Mailbag: What is the worst outcome on lottery night?
May 6, 2026, 12:57 PM | Updated: May 7, 2026, 10:36 am
SALT LAKE CITY – Welcome to the Utah Jazz Mailbag! This week, we look at the worst-case scenario for the Jazz ahead of Sunday’s NBA Draft lottery.
Each week, we will send out a prompt on X and BlueSky asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.
Then, we’ll respond to as many as we can in that week’s Jazz mailbag in the Jazz Notes podcast.
Jazz Mailbag: What’s the worst-case scenario at the draft lottery?
Hey Ben. What in your mind is worst case scenario for the Jazz coming out of this draft? Would love to hear both your and Chandler’s opinion.
— Tyson Newman (@TNewm2215) May 5, 2026
Question: What in your mind is the worst-case scenario for the Jazz coming out of this draft?
Answer: The worst-case scenario for the Jazz on draft night begins with the lottery, set for Sunday.
The Jazz already avoided the most damaging outcome: losing their pick entirely. That risk disappeared when they won the draft tiebreaker over the Sacramento Kings on April 20.
Still, several less favorable outcomes remain possible, even with the pick guaranteed to stay in Utah.
The first sign of trouble will come if the back end of the lottery order does not unfold as expected. Entering the drawing, the Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder (via the LA Clippers), Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks carry the longest odds to jump into the top four.
Related: 2026 Utah Jazz NBA Draft Prospects
If any of those teams does not hear their name called in the expected pre-lottery order, the Jazz’s odds of staying in the top four drop below 40 percent. If two of those teams jump the line, Utah’s odds fall to at best 25 percent — and potentially as low as 14 percent if Milwaukee lands in the top four (due to Atlanta’s draft swap rights).
The lottery turns truly disastrous if any team projected behind the Jazz gets announced four spots below its expected position, signaling that four other teams have surged into the top of the draft.
For example, if the Bucks are announced with the No. 14 pick, the Jazz will know immediately they have slipped to No. 8 long before their selection is revealed. Several other scenarios would deliver the same outcome before Utah’s position becomes official:
- Bulls fall from No. 9 to No. 13
- Mavericks drop from No. 8 to No. 12
- Hawks fall from No. 7 to No. 11
- Grizzlies drop from No. 6 to No. 10
- Kings fall from No. 5 to No. 9
And, while falling to eighth would hurt, other outcomes could prove even more damaging.
If any Western Conference team with worse odds jumps into the top four, the lottery results would sting.
The worst-case scenario includes the reigning champion Thunder vaulting to No. 1 despite having the 12th-best odds, the four-time champion Warriors moving up from No. 11 to reopen their competitive window, or teams like the Mavericks, Grizzlies, or Kings adding another high-end prospect to accelerate their rebuilds.
The Western Conference is already a much tougher gauntlet than the East, and the Jazz would prefer not to see more elite talent enter the mix.
On draft night itself, the risk becomes less about position and more about fit.
I think ESPN has the best lottery simulator.
Gives you a real sense of how chaotic the order can get very quickly.https://t.co/mMfrwXYdeI https://t.co/BDuXeKgMI3
— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) May 4, 2026
If the Jazz fall out of the top four, they will likely choose among a group of one-and-done guards, each with distinct strengths and weaknesses. That group includes Keaton Wagler, Kingston Flemings, Darius Acuff Jr., Brayden Burries and Mikel Brown.
Truthfully, a league-wide consensus on their order likely won’t emerge before the first round begins June 23.
Utah could still land a guard at No. 8 that it would have comfortably selected at No. 5, and any one of those prospects could emerge as the best player from the group in five years.
Furthermore, if the Jazz don’t like their options when they are on the clock, they will explore trades to maximize the value of the pick.
Best-case scenario
While much of the focus centers on what could go wrong, several outcomes would strongly benefit Utah.
During the lottery, the Jazz will know they’ve secured a top-four pick if their name is not called at No. 8 and the order continues with:
- The Brooklyn Nets at No. 7
- Either the Nets or Indiana Pacers at No. 6
- Any of the Nets, Pacers or Washington Wizards at No. 5
And, positive signs could appear even earlier. If the Hornets, Heat, Thunder, Warriors, and Bucks are announced in order from No. 14 through No. 10, Utah’s odds of staying in the top four increase from 45 percent to nearly 50 percent.
If the Chicago Bulls land at No. 9, the Jazz’s chances of drafting in the top four move above 50 percent. From there, each subsequent pick revealed in order would improve Utah’s odds by at least three percentage points.
Ultimately, the Jazz are in a healthy spot entering the lottery, knowing that at worst, they’ll be able to add another top-eight draft pick to their already talented roster. While there are scenarios that wouldn’t favor the Jazz if they slip to eighth while other Western Conference teams climb into the top four, they should be satisfied to have another high-value asset to utilize entering the offseason.
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Ben Anderson is the author of the Jazz Mailbag, a Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports, the author of the Jazz Mailbag, and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 10-12p with Jake Scott on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone. Find Ben on Twitter at @BensHoops, on Instagram @BensHoops, or on BlueSky.
