Utah Jazz Loss In Dallas Aids Lottery Odds, Raises Questions

Keyonte George led the Jazz with 29 points, and Brice Sensabaugh added 25 off the bench.

Klay Thompson again led the Mavericks, scoring 23 points in a reserve role.

Utah Jazz Mailbag: Does Cody Williams Recent Improvement Matter?

The Brice Sensabaugh Conundrum

With Jazz coach Will Hardy relying on a roster made up almost entirely of first-, second-, and third-year players, Brice Sensabaugh is playing his best basketball of the season.

The wing produced 25 points off the bench, pushing his three-game total to 95 points over the Jazz’s last 12 quarters.

Sensabaugh’s scoring ability has never been in doubt, but averaging 31.6 points per game over a three-game stretch stands out, especially while shooting 35-57 (61 percent) from the floor, including 9-24 from three (37 percent).

the Brice is always right 💰

he’s up to 21 for his third-straight game of 20+! 🥶 pic.twitter.com/3WibsCqHHC

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) January 17, 2026

Now the Jazz coaching staff must determine how to incorporate Sensabaugh’s scoring strengths into the team’s offense.

The Ohio State product generates offense on his own and ranks among the Jazz’s best isolation scorers, yet the team rarely struggles to score when fully healthy, which makes his best skill set somewhat redundant.

Sensabaugh owns a career 37 percent mark from three, but he is shooting only 33 percent this season, limiting his impact as a catch-and-shoot option.

He remains an average rebounder and a below-average defender, and the offense often slows noticeably when he operates in a one-man game.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by KSL Sports (@kslsports)

That doesn’t diminish the value of his scoring role, but the Jazz must determine how to maximize it before deciding whether to invest in the 22-year-old’s future.

Can Sensabaugh develop into a true dead-eye shooter while improving defensively and earning a full-time spot in the Jazz’s starting lineup? Or is he best deployed as a go-to scorer off the bench, surrounded by defensive specialists who allow him to focus on creating offense?

Those questions linger, even as his NBA-level talent becomes more obvious.

Fortunately for both the Jazz and Sensabaugh, the team still has another season and a half to determine exactly what he can offer before making a final decision on his future when he becomes a restricted free agent in the summer of 2027.

Mavericks Losses Are Key To Lottery

If Jazz fans are stuck watching the NBA lottery results for the fourth straight May, the team’s two losses in Dallas over the last 72 hours could prove critical in maintaining control of their pick.

The Jazz’s first-round pick is top-eight protected, meaning it transfers to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it lands outside the top eight selections.

Under the NBA’s current draft format, the Jazz can’t guarantee control of the pick unless they finish with the fourth-worst record in the league, allowing them to drop no further than eighth in the lottery.

The Jazz went from .5 games between themselves and the Mavericks for the sixth-best lottery odds to 2.5 games over 72 hours.

Will likely loom large in May.

— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) January 18, 2026

After consecutive losses in Dallas, only two games separate the Jazz—who hold the sixth-worst record—from the Sacramento Kings, who sit fourth-worst.

The Jazz are 14-28 this season, while the Kings, winners of four straight, now stand at 12-30.

But, even if the Jazz don’t fall behind the Kings or the fifth-worst Brooklyn Nets, their losses to the Mavericks could still benefit them.

The Jazz entered the two-game set just 0.5 games ahead of Dallas in the lottery standings.

Those back-to-back losses now put 2.5 games between the Jazz and Mavericks, with the 15-26 Charlotte Hornets just 1.5 games behind the Jazz in the lottery order.

If these standings hold, the Jazz would have a 96.2 percent chance of keeping their pick, a 35 percent chance of jumping into the top four, and a 58.9 percent chance of drafting between picks 6-8.

With 40 games remaining, the Jazz are in a strong position to secure another lottery pick this summer.