Utah Jazz pick up uneasy win over middling Warriors

With Monday’s win, the Jazz moved to within one victory of the New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks in the standings.

They still own the NBA’s fifth-worst record at 20-45, but each win tightens their margin for error in keeping their 2026 draft pick.

To retain that lottery pick, the Jazz must finish with one of the top eight selections in the draft.

To feel truly secure that a lottery drawing won’t cost them the pick, they likely need to finish with the league’s fifth-worst record or lower, which carries a 99.4 percent chance of keeping the selection.

There’s not a greater discrepancy in mood than the one between Jazz fans in the arena and Jazz fans on Twitter.

— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) March 10, 2026

If they finish with the sixth-worst record, their odds drop to 96.2 percent, still strong but less comfortable. Their chances fall sharply if they climb to the seventh-worst record or higher.

If the Jazz pass both Dallas and New Orleans in the standings, they would have an 88.4 percent chance of keeping the pick—and a better-than-one-in-10 chance of losing it.

The Pelicans don’t control their 2026 pick and have no incentive to lose games to improve lottery position. That should give the Jazz some cushion, but that has been true all season, and New Orleans still has only 21 wins.

If the Pelicans lose a key player to injury or decide to emphasize development for younger players, they may not outpace the Jazz in wins the rest of the way.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, have dropped seven straight and, like the Jazz, improve their draft odds with each loss.

Jazz fans, you aren’t going to be able to relax until the end of the regular season on April 13.

And depending on what this order looks like then, you might not see your anxiety dip until after the lottery on May 10. pic.twitter.com/Xjj1mnO60z

— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) March 10, 2026

The Jazz have the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams, with upcoming opponents carrying a .520 average win percentage. When rooting for losses, that’s a bad thing.

Dallas faces opponents with a .525 average, while New Orleans has the toughest slate at .532.

Memphis also factors into the picture. The Grizzlies own the league’s most difficult remaining schedule, have lost four straight, and sit only three wins ahead of the Jazz with 19 games left.

Ultimately, the Jazz still control their path to finishing with better draft odds than Dallas, New Orleans, and Memphis. But every win adds anxiety.

Two-way players carry Jazz

Though the Jazz escaped with a home win, it wasn’t the regular rotation that carried them.

Outside of Sensabaugh and Kyle Filipowski, who combined for 40 points, two-way players Elijah Harkless, Oscar Tshiebwe, and Blake Hinson made the decisive impact against the Warriors.

BLAKE, FOR THE LEAD!!! 🤩 pic.twitter.com/5FaVCYFkKP

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) March 10, 2026

Harkless posted a career-high 16 points and six assists. Tshiebwe added 10 points and eight rebounds in 19 minutes off the bench. Hinson buried a dagger 3-pointer with 30 seconds left to give the Jazz a late three-point lead.

“They’re all part of our program for a reason — it’s not just what they do as basketball players, but who they are as competitors and people,” Jazz coach Will Hardy said. “We’re trying to really hone in on who we want in our program, and those three guys all represent that.”

If the Jazz’s two-way players continue to produce as they did against Golden State, more wins will follow.