Score Prediction For BYU’s NCAA Matchup Against VCU
Mar 18, 2025, 10:48 PM | Updated: Mar 19, 2025, 1:03 am
DENVER – Just like last year, BYU basketball, with a No. 6 seed, is preparing for an East Region matchup against a No. 11 seed from the Atlantic 10 Conference.
Will this year be different?
BYU was sent packing for the fourth consecutive time in the Round of 64 last season against Duquesne. This time, BYU looks to end the struggles in the NCAA Tournament against the VCU Rams.
BYU basketball looks to end NCAA Tournament drought
“We’re sticking present to this year, we’re excited. We just have different dudes on this team. I feel like we’re a whole different team than last year,” said BYU basketball senior Trevin Knell.
“I feel like we have a lot of blue-collar guys with Trey (Stewart) and “Mo” (Mag), with athleticism in Keba (Keita) and just our shooting ability. I’m really excited to play against a team like VCU. They’re really talented and really well-coached, and so it’s going to be a great matchup, and I’m excited for round one.”
Both teams come into the “Big Dance” as some of the hottest teams in the country.
BYU has won nine of its last 10 games, with the lone loss coming against No. 1 seed Houston. VCU has won 18 of its previous 20 games since the calendar turned to 2025.
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BYU enters the NCAA Tournament with a 24-9 overall record. The Rams are 28-6 this season.
Similar to BYU, VCU is looking to end an NCAA drought. VCU has lost its last three NCAA Tournament games and hasn’t advanced in March Madness since 2016.
BYU vs. VCU
First Round – 2025 NCAA Tournament
Location: Denver, Colorado
Arena: Ball Arena
Tip-Off: 2:05 p.m. (MDT)
TV: TNT
Radio: KSL NewsRadio (102.7 FM, 1160 AM in Utah – Extended pregame begins at Noon from Denver)
Score Prediction
BYU versus VCU is one of the top matchups in the Round of 64. Both teams are hovering around the Top 30 in predictive ratings such as KenPom and Bart Torvik.
It’s a high-level matchup in the first round.
BYU has one of the top offenses in college basketball, while VCU boasts a Top 25 defense. That’s going to be the matchup everyone is going to be talking about.
But it will be just as interesting when VCU has the ball. The Rams finished No. 1 in offense in the Atlantic 10 this season, while BYU’s defense finished ninth in the Big 12.
In VCU’s two losses in 2025, they were held to 16% shooting from three in both of those games. BYU allows opponents to shoot 34.8% from three this season.
BYU’s defensive metrics are average. However, they have shown toughness, led by First-Team All-Big 12 player Richie Saunders. That will need to be displayed on the wing as BYU will look to slow down A-10 Player of the Year and former Utah State transfer Max Shulga.
Then, in the paint, BYU’s bigs will need to take care of business on the glass. Keba Keita faced VCU last year when he was with Utah in the NIT Quarterfinals. He is coming into the NCAA Tournament fresh off a 12-rebound performance against Houston.
The Cougars’ offense is far and away the best VCU will face this year. BYU’s offense is rated 11th best in KenPom’s efficiency ratings. So, is VCU’s defensive strength a byproduct of facing weaker offenses?
The key for BYU is getting off to a strong start. They have stumbled out of the gate on offense in four of their last five games. Getting a bucket early in this game will be key.
BYU has turned to Trevin Knell on opening offensive possessions with a three-pointer in a handful of games over the past 10. If Knell or someone like Saunders can get BYU a bucket on the first possession, that will go a long way to settling in and playing their game on the offensive end.
I’ll call for BYU to jump out to a strong start and establish their pace of play in the game.
BYU hits at least 11 threes and wins the rebound margin while limiting VCU’s second opportunities on the glass.
It’s always risky to pick BYU in March Madness. But it’s a clean slate with first-year head coach Kevin Young.
BYU takes down the Rams to advance to the Round of 32.
Prediction: BYU 80, VCU 76
Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.
