Utah vs Oklahoma State: Game Day Preview Plus Score Prediction
Sep 21, 2024, 7:00 AM | Updated: 7:53 am
Utah Football QB Cam Rising. Photo by Joel Davidson.
SALT LAKE CITY – Utah vs Oklahoma State is just hours away from kickoff in Stillwater. Both teams are battling to improve to 4-0 on the season and gain a significant advantage in the Big 12 Conference race.
This is only the second time these two programs have faced off all-time. However, this is the first of many significant battles the two programs will have in the years to come.
Here are some final thoughts on the game and a score prediction on the game.
Utah vs Oklahoma State
Game Info
Location: Boone Pickens Stadium
TV: FOX
Rado: AM 700
Records: No. 12 Utah (3-0); No. 14 Oklahoma State (3-0)
Last Week: Utah def. Utah State, 38-21; Oklahoma State def. Tulsa, 45-10
Three Game Day Thoughts
1. Utah O vs Oklahoma State D In The Red Zone
Oklahoma State’s defense has earned a reputation for conceding a lot of yardage to opponents, as they currently give up 462.7 yards per game.
At the same time, they do a surprisingly good job of limiting the opponent’s scoring efficiency. That comes down to good defense in the red zone.
Under Andy Ludwig, the Utes own the No. 4 ranked red zone offense (2019-2024, excludes 2020) in the country according to SportSource Analytics Red Zone Rating (a proprietary rating that combines both Red Zone Drive Percentage and Points Per Red Zone Drive to formulate an overall Red Zone performance score).
On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys own the No. 12 red zone defense in the same Red Zone Rating formula over that same period.
Through three games of 2024, neither program is playing to the same level. However, they are nearly identical in the 2024 rankings.
The Utes own the No. 46 red zone offense, while the Cowboys have the No. 47 red zone defense.
Utah should have opportunities in the red zone in this game. The key is to capitalize with points on the board.
2. Utah Football Needs 200+ Yards On The Ground
After rushing for 221 yards and a touchdown last week, Utah will need another strong effort on the ground against Oklahoma State.
The Utes were able to generate more movement up front in week two. Then, they were able to execute more efficiently in getting to the second level last week.
That allowed Micah Bernard and Mike Mitchell to rip off a handful of chunk plays, which led to a 7.2 average for Bernard and 5.4 for Mitchell.
Utah is going to need more of that this week against a Cowboys defense that’s allowing 157.3 rushing yards per game (No. 93 in the country) and 4.41 per carry (No. 88 in the country).
The Utah offensive line should be able to generate positive movement.
The Cowboys concede 3.21 defensive line yards (Baylor gives up 2.57, USU 3.74), while Utah’s offensive line generates 3.08 offensive line yards.
When Utah runs for 200+ yards, which they’ve down 32 times since 2019, they own a 28-4 record.
3. Pressure Oklahoma State Pass Attack
Utah’s pass rush vs Oklahoma State’s pass protection is going to be a huge factor in this one.
The Utes have one of the top pass rushes in the conference and country. They own the No. 8 sack rate in the country, which features the conference leader in Van Fillinger with 3.5 sacks.
The Cowboys have one of the top pass protection rates in the conference and country. They have given up 11 total pressures and 0 sacks so far through three games.
A significant factor in their efficient pass blocking is Bowman’s ability to get the ball out quickly. Of 140 qualified quarterbacks, Bowman owns the No. 7 fastest ‘time to the throw’ at 2.26 seconds. Only 32.7% of his total dropbacks have registered a ‘time to the throw’ of 2.5 seconds or more.
That puts a bit of the onus on the secondary to also apply pressure to the passing attack as well. Utah needs to disrupt the quick timing Bowman has played with. That can be accomplished through physical force with defensive backs in press coverage or through schematic confusion to create hesitation on Bowman’s part.
Oklahoma State hasn’t given up a sack yet this season but when they lose the sack margin to the opponent, they own a 6-12 record since 2019.
Two Utah vs Oklahoma State Questions
1. Cam Rising?
The biggest factor of the game is whether or not Cam Rising will play. There were a number of positive indications early in the week but things started to change on Wednesday. There is still an expectation that he will play but the injury has been troublesome.
Rising’s status won’t be officially decided until game-time, which unfortunately is a situation Ute fans are way too familiar with. Given the injury, it’s obviously a volatile one for a quarterback, so Even after the game-time decision, his status could change.
2. Is Utah Ready For Ollie Gordon?
After giving up over 100 yards to Utah State RB Rashul Faison last week, Utah faces the reigning Doak Walker Award winner in Ollie Gordon.
Utah has always hung its hat on defending the run. It’s the top priority of the defense year in, and year out.
Though Gordon has not gotten off to the start many expected him to, he’s the sort of talent that can get going at any moment.
Utah needs to be much better at defending Gordon and the Cowboys’ rushing attack.
Score Prediction for Utah vs Oklahoma State
This game feels like it should lead to a lot of points scored for both teams. However, I can’t shake the feeling that this game is going to be more of a grind.
Utah 27, Oklahoma State 23
You can find Utah football’s conference schedule here.
