Jazz Mailbag: Will Jazz Lose Their Pick To The OKC Thunder?
Nov 17, 2025, 4:34 PM | Updated: Nov 18, 2025, 10:19 am
SALT LAKE CITY – Welcome to the Utah Jazz mailbag, where this week we look at whether the team will lose its 1-8 protected first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Each week, we will send out a prompt on X and BlueSky asking for the questions you have about the Jazz.
Then, we’ll respond to as many as we can in that week’s Jazz mailbag in the Jazz Notes podcast.
Jazz Mailbag: Will Jazz Lose Their Pick To The OKC Thunder?
obvious question that everyone’s asking, but what happens if the jazz closer to 11-14 than 8-17 after this next stretch? are they just going to go for a play-in spot? any win-now trades or stay the course?
— #ben (@BBC00LEY) November 17, 2025
Question: What happens if the Jazz have a record closer to 11-14 than 8-17 after this next stretch? Are they just going to go for a play-in spot? Any win-now trades or stay the course?
Answer: Let’s break this down into two parts: first, we’ll examine the Jazz’s upcoming stretch of games leading into the Christmas holiday. Then, we’ll explore how the team might respond to either hypothetical outcome.
To date, ESPN ranks the Jazz’s schedule as the sixth-easiest in the NBA. Looking ahead, Tankathon projects the Jazz to face the second-most difficult schedule for the rest of the season.
Through the first 13 games, Jazz opponents have a combined win percentage of .476. The Jazz hold a 5-8 record—one win better than ESPN’s expected 4-9 mark.
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Over the next 67 games (excluding two yet-to-be-announced NBA Cup games), their opponents have an average win percentage of .529—just 0.001 behind the Phoenix Suns, who face the league’s toughest remaining schedule.
In short, the Jazz have benefited from a relatively easy schedule so far and have performed about as expected.
To put that in perspective: the Jazz’s remaining schedule is akin to facing last season’s Detroit Pistons (who finished sixth in the East) every night for the next 67 games, while having played the Chicago Bulls (who finished 10th) over their first 13 outings.
With that context, let’s look at the Jazz’s next 14 games between now and Christmas—doubling the current sample size—to gauge where they might stand in a month.
Upcoming Opponents:
- Teams .500 or Better:
Los Angeles Lakers (3x), OKC Thunder (2x), Houston Rockets (2x), Golden State Warriors, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Denver Nuggets - Teams Below .500:
Sacramento Kings, Brooklyn Nets, Memphis Grizzlies - Game Locations:
Home Games: 9
Road Games: 5
Playing nine of the next 14 games at home gives the Jazz a slight edge. However, only two of those matchups—against the Kings and Grizzlies—are games they should be expected to win.
The Jazz should also be favored in their road game against the Nets, but likely won’t be favored in any of the other 11 contests.
If the Jazz outperform expectations and go 4-10 over this stretch, they’d sit at 9-18 by Christmas (excluding Cup games). At that point, the team would likely shift its focus toward the lottery rather than pushing for wins.
Even if the Jazz pull off a surprise and finish 7-7, landing at 12-15 by Christmas, could the organization justify a push for the play-in tournament?
Probably not.
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Last season, teams with similar records at Christmas—like the Kings (13-15), Suns (13-13), and Spurs (13-13)—still went on to miss the playoffs. Only Sacramento, which didn’t own its first-round pick and had no incentive to tank, reached the Play-In Tournament. They lost to the Mavericks in the 9-10 matchup and failed to make the postseason.
The Spurs, meanwhile, finished 34-48, and the Suns ended at 36-46.
Interestingly, both the Spurs (De’Aaron Fox) and Kings (Zach LaVine) made win-now trades midseason to chase a playoff berth, but neither succeeded.
That doesn’t mean the Jazz couldn’t try to improve their roster this season. But even aggressive trades don’t guarantee immediate results.
Ultimately, while the Jazz’s 5-8 record through 13 games may seem surprising, they’re not far ahead of schedule given the competition. With tougher opponents coming over the next five weeks, the Jazz will get a clearer picture of their place in the playoff race—and can adjust their strategy accordingly.
Want to ask questions in next week’s Jazz mailbag? Follow us at @benshoops.
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Ben Anderson is the author of the Jazz Mailbag, a Utah Jazz insider for KSL Sports, the author of the Jazz Mailbag, and the co-host of Jake and Ben from 10-12p with Jake Scott on 97.5 The KSL Sports Zone. Find Ben on Twitter at @BensHoops, on Instagram @BensHoops, or on BlueSky.
