2024 Big 12 Football Bowl Projections Following Week 3
Sep 15, 2024, 2:41 PM
FORT WORTH, TX - SEPTEMBER 2: A detailed view of an end zone pylon with the Big XII logo is seen before the game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Colorado Buffaloes at Amon G. Carter Stadium on September 2, 2023 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
(Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
SALT LAKE CITY – Non-conference play is mostly in the books and that will help going forward to sort out what Big 12 teams will earn a bowl bid, or not.
The only unexpected loss this week was Kansas not being able to defeat UNLV on Friday night, falling 23-20. That defeat could come at a cost as the Jayhawks are now 1-2 and yet to have a win over an FBS team this year.
Kansas was projected to finish fourth in the Big 12 by the media but now could struggle to get to 6-6 and bowl eligibility.
Recapping #Big12FB as the dust settles on week 3️⃣ pic.twitter.com/Jc8T3h8CMB
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 15, 2024
ESPN’s Football Power Index is now projecting Kansas to finish with 5.7 wins and a 55.5% chance to become bowl eligibility.
As for the rest of the Big 12, the FPI has 13 teams projected above the 50% threshold to get to six wins but for win totals, just 11 are pegged to win at six games in their win/loss projections.
West Virginia Exits Big 12 Bowl Projections After Week Three
Last week, there were 11 teams projected to go to the postseason. This week it will be down to 10 teams as West Virginia is now 1-2 after falling to rival Pitt in the Backyard Brawl this weekend.
The Mountaineers have a long way to go as their projection from the FPI gives them a 36.7% chance of getting to six wins and a projected record of 4.9 wins. The next stretch of games will be tough for them as three of their next four are against ranked teams, but West Virginia also has three home games in that stretch with the lone road game against the No. 14 ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Big 12 Bowl Projections: Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2
LA Bowl
Wednesday, December 18
9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Matchup: Boise State vs. Arizona State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Thursday, December 26
5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Matchup: Maryland vs. BYU
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Friday, December 27
7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Matchup: Arkansas vs. UCF
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Friday, December 27
10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Reliant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Matchup: Tennessee vs. Arizona
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Saturday, December 28
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Matchup: Louisville vs. Oklahoma State
Valero Alamo Bowl
Saturday, December 28
7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Matchup: Washington State vs. Kansas
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Saturday, December 28
9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Matchup: Cal vs. Iowa State
TaxAct Texas Bowl
Tuesday, December 31
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Matchup: LSU vs. TCU
College Football Playoff Projections
These College Football Playoff rankings might look a little bit clunky with conference play not yet in full swing. This leads to more SEC and Big Ten teams that could make the field. Once league plays are underway expect more movement as teams get picked off.
There is a new No. 1 as Georgia mustered a 13-12 road win over Kentucky and did not look great.
Compare that to Texas — yes, the Horns played an overmatched UTSA team — who won, 56-17, with backup quarterback Arch Manning coming off the bench to replace an injured Quin Ewers to have five total touchdowns.
This means that the Longhorns are now the top seed overall and Georgia goes to fifth as they are now fighting among teams that are not projected to win a conference title.
Outside of Ohio State which stayed at No. 2, the top four included shakeups of Miami overtaking Utah which was previously No. 3 and is now down to No. 11 after a bit of a struggle against Utah State. Kansas State is now. sitting at the No. 4 spot as the projected Big 12 champion.
Other movements in these Week 3 College Football Playoff projections have UNLV getting back into the No. 12 spot as the highest-rated Group of Five team. The Rebels have two wins over Power 4 teams, with the latest being a wild finish to defeat Kansas, plus the season-opening blowout over Houston.
— wow that was crazy (@CowardlyDoggo) September 14, 2024
Other changes have Oregon back in the field and swapping out Oklahoma State. That might be more due to preseason expectations and the Ducks finally showing what they could be with a crushing blowout over rival Oregon State.
Plus, Penn State gets leaped by Missouri this week, as the Tigers defeated a solid Boston College team to remain undefeated.
Quarterfinal Games
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 8/9 Winner
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7/10 Winner
No. 3 Miami vs. No. 6/11 Winner
No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 5/12 Winner
Opening Round Games at campus sites
No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Utah at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 USC at No. 7 Alabama
No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Missouri
First Four out: Tennessee, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame
Next Group of Five: Northern Illinois, Boise State, Memphis, Texas State
