2024 Big 12 Football Bowl Projections Following Week 4

SALT LAKE CITY – Big 12 conference play starting up means that there will start to be some clarity among what teams can get to six wins to become bowl-eligible.

The results in the Big 12 were wild this week and the night ended with BYU’s upset win over Kansas State in a dominant 38-9 win. The win for the Cougars officially takes them from preseason No. 13 within the Big 12 to a contender in this conference and ranked 22nd in both the coaches and AP top 25 polls.

That movement will give BYU a big jump in the pecking order of Big 12 bowl games.

One of the best Saturdays of the #Big12FB season… and we’re only four weeks in 👀 pic.twitter.com/TztoFbjAsn

— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 22, 2024

Another noteworthy result is Colorado’s game-tying throw to send it to overtime against Baylor as LaJohntay Wester caught a 43-yarder with no time left.

Colorado ultimately won the game when two-way superstar Travis Hunter forced a fumble at the goal line to win the game. The victory for the Buffaloes put them at 3-1 and within striking distance of a bowl game, for now.

This pass by Shedeur Sanders and the catch by Lajohntay Wester in the final seconds of regulation was wild 🤯🤯@CUBuffsFootball pic.twitter.com/tKuuBmO1pv

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 22, 2024

Their schedule does get more difficult over the next month facing UCF in Orlando, Kansas State, and then Arizona on the road. Colorado also has to play Utah and Oklahoma State at home in addition to a road game against Texas Tech. If the Buffs make it to a bowl game they will have earned it.

At least for now, Colorado is on the right side of bowl eligibility. ESPN’s Football Power Index is in agreement with a projected record of 6.2 wins and a 66% chance to go to a bowl game.

Texas Tech Joins The Big 12 Bowl Projections

For the entirety of the Big 12, there are going to be 11 teams in a bowl game and just one playoff team this week. There is a bit of shuffling with Kansas State getting demoted after losing to BYU, but the Wildcats are still in a bowl game.

Texas Tech makes an appearance as they are 3-1 on the year. The Red Raiders have been up and down so far, but they are halfway there and they have a schedule that is manageable with just one currently ranked team in Oklahoma State which is on the road in Stillwater.

One team that is out from last week is Arizona State — despite sitting at 3-1 — which fell to Texas Tech, 30-22.

Taking another look at ESPN’s FPI, these computer rankings give 15 of the 16 teams in the Big 12 at least a 50% chance to six wins but just 11 are projected to win at least six games. The latter number makes more sense because it is probably mathematically impossible to have all but one Big 12 team to make a bowl game.

Big 12 Bowl Projections: Preseason | Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3

LA Bowl

Wednesday, December 18
9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Matchup: Boise State vs. Colorado

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Thursday, December 26
5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Matchup:  Rutgers vs. Kansas State

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Projection

Friday, December 27
Time TBA, ESPN
Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Matchup: Army vs. Texas Tech

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Friday, December 27
7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN
Matchup: South Carolina vs. BYU

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Friday, December 27
10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Reliant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Arizona

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Saturday, December 28
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL
Matchup: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State

Valero Alamo Bowl

Saturday, December 28
7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Alamodome, San Antonio, TX
Matchup: Washington vs. Iowa State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, December 28
9:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA
Matchup: Cal vs. Cincinnati

TaxAct Texas Bowl

Tuesday, December 31
3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Matchup: Texas A&M vs. UCF

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Projection

Friday, January 3
4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Gerald R Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
Matchup: UTSA  vs. Texas Tech

College Football Playoff Projections

The College Football Playoff field will slowly start to make some sense as conference play starts to eliminate teams from consideration. The changes this week have Utah back in the driver’s seat as the projected Big 12 champion with an extremely defensively dominant 22-19 win over Oklahoma State on the road.

The Utes allowed a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to make the final score appear closer than reality, plus the Utes started true freshman Isaac Wilson on the road in place of the still-injured Cam Rising.

Other changes in the playoff field this week have Kansas State out after its double-digit loss to BYU, USC is removed after losing to Michigan, and Missouri’s double overtime win over Vanderbilt removed them from consideration.

Moving into the playoff this week is Oregon, Clemson, and Penn State. The Tigers are back in the fold despite getting crushed by Georgia in Week One, because one single loss does not eliminate a team and Clemson is looking good after that loss to one of the top teams in the country.

This gives the ACC two teams as Miami is currently placed as the fourth seed and projected ACC champion.

The most exciting race of them all will not be how many SEC or Big Ten teams will make the field but what Group of Five team will snag that spot.

Currently, it is UNLV who has two wins over power opponents, plus a chance for a third when they take on Syracuse at home in two weeks.

Memphis was considered for the spot after its 3-0 start and win against Florida State but they fell to Navy this week. That win by the Midshipman has them as one of the first four out for that G5 spot. The other that are in that group are 2-1 Boise State, an undefeated Liberty plus a James Madison team that just hung 70 on North Carolina.

Quarterfinal Games

No. 1 Texas vs. No. 8/9 Winner

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 7/10 Winner

No. 3 Utah vs. No. 6/11 Winner

No. 4 Miami vs. No. 5/12 Winner

Opening Round Games at campus sites

No. 12 UNLV at No. 5 Georgia

No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Tennessee

No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Oregon

No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Alabama

First Four out: Missouri. Michigan, Iowa State, Notre Dame

Next Group of Five: Boise State, Navy, James Madison, Liberty

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