ESPN’s FPI Has Low Expectations For BYU Football In 2020

PROVO, Utah – After two 7-6 seasons, BYU football is looking for bigger success in 2020. Despite a lot of players returning who boast a lot of experience, the ESPN FPI isn’t seeing the improvement from past years.

The Football Power Index or more commonly referred to as FPI has BYU favored in six games in the 2020 season, with three of the six games hovering around toss-up status.

FPI’s official win/loss projection for BYU in 2020 is 5.4-6.6 and they have the Cougars ranked at number 74 out of 130 teams.

What is FPI?

FPI stands for ESPN’s College Football Power Index. It was created in 2013 “as a way to measure team strength and predict game and season outcomes.”

According to ESPN, “Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special team component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.”

“Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.” – ESPN

Here is the 2020 football schedule for BYU Football along with their projected win percentage per game according to FPI:

2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣ pic.twitter.com/TtJcEXCMUN

— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) March 3, 2020

2020 BYU Football Schedule based on FPI projections

at Utah Utes – 14.3 percent (chance of winning)

Despite Utah losing running back Zack Moss, quarterback Tyler Huntley, and cornerback Jaylon Johnson, the Utes are a heavy favorite by ESPN’s FPI to take down BYU for a 10th consecutive time.

Michigan State – 60.2 percent

The Mel Tucker era gets underway on the banks of the red cedar. Tucker left Colorado late in the coaching cycle and then shortly after the Coronavirus pandemic brought all off-season activity to a halt. BYU drawing Sparty in week two is perfect for the Cougars who look to get their second straight win over Michigan State (2016).

at Arizona State – 28.4 percent

Herm Edwards, a former NFL head coach, now has his “franchise quarterback” in Tempe with sophomore Jayden Daniels. Sun Devils are a potential pick to win the Pac-12 South in 2020. The last time BYU traveled to Tempe was in 1997.

at Minnesota – 15.4 percent

The Golden Gophers are rolling as a program under head coach PJ Fleck after winning 11 games in 2019. The most games Minnesota has won in a season since 1904. When this game was scheduled in 2016, no one expected BYU to be this big of an underdog.

Utah State – 73.0 percent

The days of BYU losing to Utah State in back-to-back years might be over as the Aggies now begin life without quarterback Jordan Love.

Missouri – 51.1 percent

This is the second game of a two-game series that began in 2015. Missouri defeated BYU five years in Arrowhead Stadium in a close game, this one looks to be another tightly contested matchup.

Houston – 40.6 percent

Houston begins year two under head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars in red finished last season 4-8 but they are in a great position for a quick bounceback after many upperclassmen redshirted a season ago.

at Northern Illinois – 58.6 percent

BYU will look to get revenge against an NIU program that shocked the Cougars in Provo two years ago by a score of 7-6. This game will be played at a soccer stadium in Bridgeview, Illinois.

at Boise State – 23.5 percent

Last year, BYU handed Boise State their lone regular-season loss, preventing the Broncos from an appearance in the New Year’s Six. Now the annual matchup heads back to the blue turf where BYU has yet to win a game.

San Diego State – 57.4 percent

BYU closed out last year’s regular-season with a 13-3 loss at San Diego State. Rocky Long has since retired as head coach and replacing him is former Michigan head man Brady Hoke, who was the Aztecs head coach previously when BYU was last in the Mountain West Conference in 2009 and 2010.

North Alabama – 99.3 percent

BYU is undefeated all-time against FCS teams posting a 13-0 record.

at Stanford – 17.2 percent

BYU closes out the 2020 regular season with a rare trip to The Farm. Only the second time in program history has BYU faced Stanford in Palo Alto.

Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and host of the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (Saturday from 12-3 pm) on KSL Newsradio. Follow him on Twitter: @Mitch_Harper.