Predictive Ratings Forecast Another Difficult Year For BYU Football In 2024
Aug 14, 2024, 3:29 PM
PROVO, Utah – Expectations for BYU football in 2024 continue to be low.
The latest example of the outside being down on BYU football is two different predictive ratings. ESPN’s FPI and the Massey Ratings project a long season for BYU football.
Initially, you might think, what do these predictive ratings know?
In regards to ESPN FPI, they have been spot-on with BYU football for the past three seasons. Entering the 2021 season, after losing Zach Wilson and many other star players from the 2020 team, ESPN’s FPI favored BYU in 10 games. The Cougars won 10 games that season.
In 2022, while many tabbed BYU as a Top 25 team, the FPI favored BYU in seven games. BYU won seven regular season games in 2022.
Last year, BYU’s first in the Big 12, the FPI gave BYU a 50% or better chance of winning in only three games. BYU outperformed that metric, winning five games. Still, the season resulted in no postseason appearance—the first for BYU since 2017.
Laying all of that out there, despite its critics, the ESPN FPI has been spot-on with BYU football in recent seasons. That shouldn’t make BYU fans feel good heading into the 2024 campaign.
ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 50% or better winning percentage in only three games for the 2024 season. None of the games have BYU with a 90% or above winning probability.
The FPI’s projected win-loss record for BYU in 2024 is 4.8-7.2. They give BYU a 35.4% chance of reaching six wins, the minimum requirement to qualify for a bowl game.
Massey Ratings is another predictive metric that has BYU struggling in 2024. It gives BYU a 50% win probability or more in four games this fall and has BYU finishing with a 3-9 record.
Game-by-game win probabilities for the 2024 BYU football schedule
Here are the game-by-game win probabilities for BYU football in 2024 from ESPN’s FPI and Massey Ratings. ESPN FPI has BYU ranked No. 73 out of 134 teams nationally.
The Massey Ratings slide BYU in at No. 55.
Southern Illinois (Aug. 31)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 89.7%; Massey – 85%
Southern Illinois FPI rank: N/A (FCS Team)
at SMU (Sept. 6)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 19.7%; Massey – 37%
SMU FPI Rank: No. 25
at Wyoming (Sept. 14)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 60.9%; Massey – 63%
Wyoming FPI Rank: No. 99
Kansas State (Sept. 21)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 27.9%; Massey – 21%
Kansas State FPI Rank: No. 22
at Baylor (Sept. 28)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 34%; Massey – 40%
Baylor FPI Rank: No. 55
Arizona (Oct. 12)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 33.8%; Massey – 42%
Arizona FPI Rank: No. 24
Oklahoma State (Oct. 18)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 30.2%; Massey – 34%
Oklahoma State FPI Rank: No. 26
at UCF (Oct. 26)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 22.7%; Massey – 38%
UCF FPI Rank: No. 32
at Utah (Nov. 9)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 24%; Massey – 18%
Utah FPI Rank: No. 27
Kansas (Nov. 16)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 27.5%; Massey – 44%
Kansas FPI Rank: No. 17
at Arizona State (Nov. 23)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 42.4%; Massey – 50%
Arizona State FPI Rank: No. 63
Houston (Nov. 30)
BYU’s win probabilities: ESPN FPI – 62.6%; Massey – 63%
Houston FPI Rank: No. 78
Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and hosts the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU in the Big 12 Conference on X: @Mitch_Harper.
