Aggies On Track To Prove Preseason Odds Wrong
Oct 4, 2019, 8:46 PM
Christopher Unga #96 of the Utah State Aggies celebrates after sacking Jamie Newman #12 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during the second half of their game at BB&T Field on August 30, 2019 in Winston Salem, North Carolina. Wake Forest won 38-35. (Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
LOGAN, Utah – Utah State football is projected to win five of the eight games left on its 2019 schedule, putting the Aggies with an 8-4 record on the season. USU was projected to win six games before the season began.
According to ESPN’s FPI, the Aggies are forecasted to finish the regular season with a record of 7.8 wins and 4.5 losses.
FPI estimates that USU will finish the year with wins over Nevada, BYU, Fresno State, Wyoming, and New Mexico. It also projects Aggie losses against #5 LSU, Air Force, and #16 Boise State.
It was wet. YOU were loud!
Fight together, WIN together.#AggiesAllTheWay pic.twitter.com/nCBD4DpNrN
— USU Football (@USUFootball) September 29, 2019
What is FPI?
FPI stands for ESPN’s College Football Power Index. It was created in 2013 “as a way to measure team strength and predict game and season outcomes.”
According to ESPN, “Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.”
“Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.” – ESPN
Utah State’s Final 8 Games
Here are the win probabilities for Utah State football on their 2019 schedule according to ESPN’s FPI (as of October 4, 2019).
August 30: at Wake Forest – Lost 38-35 (preseason – 23.9%)
September 7: vs. Stony Brook – Won 62-7 (preseason – 91.3%)
September 21: at San Diego State – Won 23-17 (preseason – 41.3%)
September 28: vs. Colorado State – Won 34-24 (preseason – 70.6%)
October 5: at #5 LSU – 4.1% (preseason – 2.1%)
October 19: vs. Nevada – 95.3% (preseason – 73.2%)
October 26: at Air Force – 45.0% (preseason – 32.4%)
November 2: vs. BYU – 58.2% (preseason – 25.5%)
November 9: at Fresno State – 55.1% (preseason – 33.8%)
November 16: vs. Wyoming – 72.1% (preseason – 66.2%)
November 23: vs. #16 Boise State – 46.6% (preseason – 27.9%)
November 30: at New Mexico – 84.5% (preseason – 63.3%)
Not a ton of hype around Utah State football according to ESPN's FPI after an 11-win season in 2018.https://t.co/u6SkWTzbg2
— KSL Sports (@kslsports) July 9, 2019
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Utah State currently has a 3-1 record on the season. The Aggies need to win three more games to become bowl eligible.
USU is currently a sizable favorite against Nevada, Wyoming, and New Mexico.
The Aggies are favorites but by slimmer odds against BYU and Fresno State.
Gary Andersen is in his first season back at Utah State after previously serving as Aggies’ head coach from 2009-12.
Under Andersen, the Aggies made it to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in 2011 and 2012.
2011 was the first bowl game for USU since 1997.
Based on ESPN’s FPI, Andersen’s team will finish 8-4 on the season. The Aggies can potentially further their season with a berth to the Mountain West Conference title game and a bowl game.
