Utah Vs Baylor Game Preview, Score Prediction
Nov 14, 2025, 5:53 PM
WACO, Texas — The No. 13 Utah Utes (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) head to Waco for a pivotal Week 12 showdown against the Baylor Bears (5-4, 3-3 Big 12), a matchup that carries major Big 12 title race implications. Here is the game preview and score prediction.
Both programs are coming off a bye, rested and refocused for what feels like a turning-point game in November.
𝐈𝐓’𝐒 𝐆𝐀𝐌𝐄 𝐖𝐄𝐄𝐊‼️ Back on the road and headed to Waco, TX 💼
🆚 Baylor
🏟️ McLane Stadium
⏰ SAT 11.15 | 5:00PM MT
📺 ESPN2
📻 @ESPN700 / 92.1 FM#GoUtes | @SeatGeek pic.twitter.com/S6Cvxyw02l— Utah Football (@Utah_Football) November 10, 2025
The Stakes in the Big 12 Race and Beyond
In order to achieve their goals of a Big 12 title and College Football Playoff birth, Utah’s margin for error is gone. At 7-2, the Utes have clawed back into the top 15 of the College Football Playoff rankings after a dominant 45-14 win over Cincinnati before the bye.
They’ve found rhythm again on both sides of the ball — and now need to keep winning to stay in the Big 12 Championship mix.
For Baylor, bowl eligibility and pride are on the line. The Bears have been inconsistent but tough at home, winning three straight in Waco. This marks the first-ever Big 12 meeting between the two programs, and it feels like a tone-setter for what could become a recurring November battle.
When Utah Has the Ball
Quarterback Devon Dampier’s dual-threat ability has reignited Utah’s offense. He threw for 213 yards and 2 touchdowns while adding 78 rushing yards against Cincinnati. That brought his season totals to 1,558 yards and 15 touchdowns through the air to go along with 520 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground.
The matchup favors Utah’s ground game. Baylor ranks 94th nationally in EPA allowed per rush and is giving up 177 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry.
Expect Wayshawn Parker, Na’Quari Rogers, and Daniel Bray to get plenty of work — particularly on the right edge, where Baylor has consistently surrendered chunk plays.
Davis has seamlessly stepped into the lead-wide-receiver role for the Utes after transferring in, and the numbers back it up — 56 catches for 650 yards and 4 touchdowns so far this season.
The trenches have been the biggest strength for Utah in 2025. The offensive line earned semifinalist status for the Joe Moore Award, recognizing unit excellence at the line of scrimmage. The Utes are averaging 267.1 rushing yards per game — among the top marks in the country — and have allowed just seven sacks on the season.
Led by standout linemen like Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu, Utah’s line is making the spread-power run game look smooth and efficient.
When Baylor Has the Ball
Utah’s defense will aim to make quarterback Sawyer Robertson uncomfortable. The Baylor Bears’ passing game has been one of the most prolific in the Big 12 this season, largely thanks to senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson.
Through nine games, he’s completed 62.8 % of his passes, thrown for 2,780 yards with 26 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and posted a 146.3 passer rating. His ability to push the ball downfield and exploit mismatches has kept Baylor’s offense humming even when the run game stalls.
On the receiving end, Baylor boasts legitimate threats at multiple spots. Wide-out Josh Cameron is having a breakout campaign—he already leads his team in receiving yards, sits third in the conference, and looks on pace for a 1,000-yard season.
Meanwhile tight end Michael Trigg remains a matchup nightmare, consistently exploiting seams and creating big plays. That duo gives Utah’s secondary and linebackers a layered challenge: cover the big-play threats, but don’t lose leverage underneath.
The Winning Recipe for Utah
Balancing the Ground Attack
Utah’s rushing offense has found its rhythm in recent weeks — and the improvement isn’t just about yardage totals, it’s about distribution. The Utes have been far more balanced, running effectively across the entire line of scrimmage. That diversity of run looks forces opposing defenses to stay disciplined and prevents them from keying on one side of the formation.
The numbers suggest that balance could pay off again this week. Baylor has been particularly vulnerable on runs to the right edge, giving up 5.7 yards per carry to Auburn, 7.0 to Oklahoma State, 12.8 to TCU, and 8.0 to UCF, among others.
Given Utah’s personnel up front and the way they’ve been blocking on that side, expect the Utes to attack that edge early and often.
Making Sawyer Robertson Uncomfortable
As Kyle Whittingham put it, the goal is simple: make Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson uncomfortable. That doesn’t necessarily mean dialing up constant blitzes, but it does mean keeping him guessing.
Under pressure, Robertson has completed just 38-of-78 passes for 627 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions — good for an 86.9 passer rating. When blitzed, he’s slightly better, completing 53-of-87 for 733 yards and eight touchdowns.
The takeaway: Utah doesn’t need to live on the blitz, but it must mix coverages, disguise fronts, and generate steady pressure from its base rush.
That’s where the matchup favors Utah. Baylor’s offensive line has struggled in pass protection, with three linemen ranking among the Big 12’s top 20 in pressures allowed.
On the flip side, Utah boasts three defensive linemen in the conference’s top 35 in pressures generated. Baylor’s right tackle has surrendered 24 pressures, its left guard 17, and the rotating left tackle duo another 21.
This is an opportunity for Logan Fano, John Henry Daley, Jonah Leaea, and company to control the game up front and force Robertson into hurried throws.
An opportunity for Utah’s Mackey Award semi-finalist
Saturday’s matchup features two of the nation’s top tight ends — Dallen Bentley of Utah and Michael Trigg of Baylor — both semifinalists for the John Mackey Award.
Trigg has been one of the Big 12’s most productive weapons, tallying 40 receptions for 607 yards and six touchdowns. Bentley, meanwhile, has totaled 32 receptions for 383 yards and three scores on the season, though his recent production has dipped slightly.
With Mackey voters watching closely, this game could provide Bentley the perfect stage to make a statement.
And what could play a role in who shines brightest is the different levels of defensive success these two teams have had defending tight ends this season.
Defensively, Utah has the edge when it comes to defending tight ends. The Utes have allowed just 13 completions on 22 targets for 92 yards and one interception all season. Baylor’s defense, by contrast, has surrendered 24 catches on 33 targets for 229 yards and three touchdowns to opposing tight ends.
If those trends hold, Utah’s linebackers and safeties — particularly Lander Barton, Johnathan Hall, Tao Johnson, and Jackson Bennee — could once again prove the difference in the middle of the field.
Score Prediction
Both teams come in rested and prepared, but Utah is healthier, deeper, and more battle-tested. Expect a physical game early, but the Utes’ run game and defensive line depth should separate them in the second half.
Prediction: Utah 34, Baylor 24
Utah keeps pace in the Big 12 title race — and continues improving towards the finish line.
