Kansas State vs No. 12 Utah Game Preview, Score Prediction
Nov 22, 2025, 9:56 AM | Updated: 10:00 am
SALT LAKE CITY — The No. 12 Utes (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) prepare for a critical Week 13 showdown with Kansas State (5-5, 4-3 Big 12), a matchup that will help define the Utes’ postseason path.
With the Big 12 title race tightening and multiple tiebreaker scenarios still in play, this one has championship implications for Utah.
Both teams enter with urgency — Utah chasing a shot at Arlington, Kansas State fighting for bowl position and pride.
Today is Senior Day and fans are encouraged to show up at 1:30 PM to welcome the seniors onto the Rice-Eccles Stadium field for the final time in their careers.
𝐖𝐀𝐊𝐄 𝐔𝐏 𝐔𝐓𝐄𝐒‼️ Come support our seniors during 𝗦𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝗗𝗮𝘆, and let’s get RES rockin one last time this season🚨 Be 𝗘𝗔𝗥𝗟𝗬 and be 𝗟𝗢𝗨𝗗‼️
🆚 Kansas State
🏟️ @Rice_Eccles
⏰ SAT 11.22 | 2:00PM MT
📺 ESPN2
📻 @ESPN700 / 92.1 FM🎟️… pic.twitter.com/sFigfMVmuz
— Utah Football (@Utah_Football) November 22, 2025
Utah’s Route to the Big 12 Title, CFP At-Large bid
Utah’s Big 12 hopes are far from dead. The Utes now have five distinct paths to reach the Big 12 Championship Game, depending on how the next two weeks unfold. Here are the scenarios:
Path #1
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Utah wins out (vs Kansas State, at Kansas)
- Cincinnati wins out (vs BYU, at TCU)
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Arizona State wins out (at Colorado, vs Arizona)
Four-team tie at 7-2: Utah, BYU, Cincinnati, Arizona State. Utah wins via conference strength of schedule.
Path #2
- Utah wins out
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Cincinnati wins out
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Arizona State wins out
-
Houston wins out
Five-team tie at 7-2: Utah, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Arizona State. Utah still comes out on top.
Path #3
- Utah wins out
-
Cincinnati wins out
-
Houston wins out
- Arizona State wins one of last two
Four-team tie at 7-2: Utah, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston. Utah wins via strength of schedule.
Path #4
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Utah wins out
-
Cincinnati wins out
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Houston beats TCU
- Arizona State wins one of last two
Three-team tie at 7-2: Utah, BYU, Cincinnati. Utah wins the tie-breaker.
Path #5
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Utah wins out
-
Cincinnati wins out
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Houston loses out
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Arizona State wins one of last two
Again, a three-team tie at 7-2: Utah, BYU, Cincinnati. Utah wins.
Rooting Guide for an at-large bid: Chaos
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#22 Missouri over #8 Oklahoma (at Oklahoma)
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3-7 Virginia Tech over #13 Miami (home upset potential)
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Kentucky over #14 Vanderbilt (in Nashville)
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#15 USC at #7 Oregon – There are arguments for both sides, but an Oregon win clears any threat of USC sneaking ahead.
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Pittsburgh over #16 Georgia Tech – helps weaken the ACC’s at-large claim
Here’s your official 𝗚𝗔𝗠𝗘𝗗𝗔𝗬 𝗧𝗜𝗠𝗘𝗟𝗜𝗡𝗘!!
The Utes will be in @Rice_Eccles one more time this Saturday!! We’ll be honoring our seniors around 1:30PM MT‼️So be in your seats 𝗘𝗔𝗥𝗟𝗬 and be 𝗟𝗢𝗨𝗗‼️ #GoUtes pic.twitter.com/4bD2xI4VFD
— Utah Football (@Utah_Football) November 19, 2025
When Utah Has the Ball
Quarterback Devon Dampier, Byrd Ficklin continue to shine late in the season. Dampier has pushed his season totals to 1,668 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, to go along with 543 rushing yards and five more touchdowns.
Running back Wayshawn Parker has become Utah’s heartbeat on offense — his blend of burst and balance gives the Utes the consistent explosiveness they lacked a season ago. He’s now at 736 rushing yards on 102 carries (7.2 YPC), including 15 runs of 10+ yards.
The matchup again tilts toward Utah’s offensive line, one of the Joe Moore Award semifinalists. Behind Spencer Fano, Caleb Lomu, and Jaren Kump, Utah averages 278 rushing yards per game and has allowed just eight sacks all season — a ridiculous figure for a power-run team.
Your @KSL5TV gameday weather forecast for @Utah_Football vs. Kansas State.
Everything you need to know for gameday: https://t.co/qfAMQqAu0R pic.twitter.com/ZaFQtphZWK
— Utah Athletics (@utahathletics) November 21, 2025
Receiver Ryan Davis remains Dampier’s go-to target, posting 59 receptions for 659 yards and four touhdowns, while tight end Dallen Bentley continues to be a key safety valve with 35 receptions, 431 yards, and four touchdowns.
Kansas State’s defense, though disciplined, has shown cracks against mobile quarterbacks and physical fronts — giving Utah another opportunity to dictate the line of scrimmage.
When Kansas State Has the Ball
Containing Avery Johnson will be priority #1. The Wildcats’ sophomore quarterback has accounted for 2,168 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, plus another 369 yards and seven scores on the ground.
The Wildcats will be without their top pass catcher Jayce Brown, who suffered an injury against Oklahoma State. They will turn to Jaron Tibbs and Jerand Bradley to pick up opportunities.
Johnson’s ability to extend plays and punish undisciplined pass rushes is what makes Kansas State dangerous, even when their offensive rhythm stutters. Expect defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley to mix fronts, bring disguised pressure, and rely on John Henry Daley, Logan Fano, and Jonah Leaea to collapse the pocket without losing containment.
Utah’s secondary — led by Smith Snowden, Tao Johnson— will be tested by K-State’s big-bodied receivers and play-action looks. The Utes have been among the Big 12’s best pass defenses all season, ranking top-three in efficiency and yards allowed per attempt.
One absence to note: safety Scooby Davis will miss the first half due to a targeting call vs Baylor, giving an opportunity to Donovan Saunders.
The Winning Recipe for Utah
1. Protect the Ball
Kansas State lives off takeaways — plain and simple. They’re +10 in turnover margin and have forced a ridiculous 24 turnovers this season (12 interceptions, 12 fumble recoveries). What makes that stat even more impressive is how balanced it’s been across the roster — it’s not one player doing all the damage.
Linebacker Desmond Purnell has been the tone-setter, with two forced fumbles, two interceptions, and four pass breakups, but nearly everyone in that defense has contributed to the takeaway party.
For Utah, this is non-negotiable: protect the football. If Kansas State wins the turnover battle, it changes the game’s entire script. Clean, efficient possessions are the only path to avoiding the chaos that fuels the Wildcats.
2. Controlled Chaos
Defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley faces one of his trickiest assignments of the year in Avery Johnson. Against mobile quarterbacks, Utah typically prefers a “cage rush” — collapsing the pocket without letting the QB escape. But Johnson is a different challenge. He’s at his worst when the pressure hits home and he’s forced into panic decisions.
Scalley will need to find the perfect balance: create controlled chaos. Collapse from the edges, but mix in strategic blitzes to keep Johnson guessing. John Henry Daley in particular has a favorable matchup off the edge and could be a difference-maker if he wins early downs.
After some shaky moments against Baylor, expect a bounceback performance from Utah’s secondary, which should benefit from tighter communication and more disciplined zone coverage.
3. Be Prepared for Surprises
Don’t let Kansas State’s dud against Oklahoma State fool you — It’s very easy to overlook Oklahoma State this season and Chris Klieman will certainly have his squad better prepared for this matchup.
One player to watch: Lincoln Cure, the former five-star tight end. He hasn’t broken out yet, but this is the type of stage where K-State might try to get him involved as a mismatch weapon. Utah, however, has been one of the nation’s toughest defenses against tight ends, giving up just 16 completions for 134 yards all year.
That’s where Lander Barton, Johnathan Hall, and Tao Johnson must own the middle of the field. Against a team that thrives on misdirection and physicality in 12 personnel, Utah’s linebackers and safeties will set the tone.
Kansas State – Utah Score Prediction
This game screams “Utah football.” Tough, disciplined, cold-weather grind — right up Kyle Whittingham’s alley. Kansas State will battle early, but Utah’s depth and trench dominance wear teams down over 60 minutes.
Score Prediction: Utah 42, Kansas State 20
The Utes move to 9-2, keep their Big 12 title hopes alive, and set up a high-stakes finale in Lawrence.
