Utah Jazz Drop Road Finale As Lottery Projections Grow

Missing All-Star Lauri Markkanen, the Jazz were led by Keyonte George, who scored 30 points.

Victor Wembanyama led all scorers with 33.

Utah Jazz Game Blog: Spurs Handle Jazz Late

Jazz On Pace For 26 Wins—Where Does That Put Them On Average?

After dropping four straight and nine of their last 11, the Jazz now hold a .326 winning percentage through 43 games, giving them the NBA’s sixth-worst record.

If the season ended today, the Jazz would have a 96.2 percent chance of keeping their 2026 lottery pick and a 3.8 percent chance of falling to ninth and sending it to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The team sits in a strong position for now, but how has a .326 winning percentage historically held up over the last 10 seasons?

On average, a .326 winning percentage would rank as the 5.8th-worst record in the NBA during that span, with teams never finishing worse than fourth or higher than seventh in the lottery order.

The Utah Jazz’s road trip ends with a 123-110 loss to the San Antonio Spurs. 🏀

Keyonte George and Jusuf Nurkic combined for 50 points with Lauri Markkanen sidelined. https://t.co/HgcdFeTmLA

— KSL Sports (@kslsports) January 20, 2026

However, in four of the past 10 seasons, a .326 winning percentage produced the seventh-worst record, while teams finished with the fourth-, fifth-, and sixth-worst records twice each.

If the Jazz ended the season with the league’s seventh-worst record, their odds of losing the pick would rise from 3.8 percent to 14.2 percent—nearly quadrupling.

Despite the team’s current pace, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) projected a less optimistic outcome.

Before Monday’s game, the BPI projected the Jazz to win only 24.7 games and finish with the NBA’s fourth-worst record.

With a bottom-four finish, the Jazz would guarantee they retain this year’s pick, since they could fall no lower than eighth in the lottery.

To meet ESPN’s projection, the Jazz would need to finish the season 10-29, a .256 win rate—a significant drop from their current pace.

Jazz Open Last Extended Home Stand of Season

If the Jazz were to finish with the league’s fourth-worst record, they would need to lose more home games.

So far, the Jazz have won .428 of their home games, and at that pace, they would secure nine more wins with 21 games remaining at Delta Center.

That pace would allow for only one additional road win in their 19 remaining away games.

With that in mind, the Jazz’s upcoming six-game home stand—beginning Tuesday against the Minnesota Timberwolves—could heavily influence their lottery odds.

It looked to me like the Jazz had some tired legs in tonight’s loss.

Curious if that’s more to do with it being game 5 of a 5-game road trip, or the young players hitting the dog days with the All-Star game approaching.

Six game homestand should be revealing.

— Ben Anderson (@BensHoops) January 20, 2026

After playing Minnesota, the Jazz will host the Spurs, Heat, Clippers, Warriors, and Nets before heading into a stretch where 19 of their final 33 games come on the road.

The Timberwolves and Spurs rank among the NBA’s top six teams, while the Heat and Warriors sit in eighth place in their respective conferences.

The Nets are one of only five teams with a worse record than the Jazz.

During their recent five-game road trip, the Jazz took timely losses in Chicago and twice in Dallas, games they might have otherwise won.

Their performance over these next six games will have a lasting impact on their final record.