WCC Tournament Predictions: How Far Will BYU Basketball Advance?

LAS VEGAS – The 2022 WCC Tournament highlights how far the West Coast Conference has grown as a league over the past decade.

Going into the league tournament with the chance of producing four NCAA Tournament teams speaks to the league’s depth, the quality of play, and the investment that schools have placed into their basketball programs.

Friday's second round @WCChoops tournament matchups are set.

– #BYU takes on LMU at 7 p.m. (MT)
– Portland versus San Diego in the night cap.#WCChoops #BYUHoops https://t.co/KVCwPvi1dV pic.twitter.com/JqgIaqmqse

— KSL Sports (@kslsports) March 4, 2022

It’s a watershed moment to have a team of BYU’s stature as the five-seed. The depth in this tournament is good and oh yeah, it has the nation’s best team in Gonzaga who will patiently wait ’til Monday to get revenge for its rare league loss at Saint Mary’s last week.

A run in the WCC Tournament would help BYU’s NCAA at-large hopes

BYU would love nothing more than a chance to face the Zags again. If they do get that far, they’ll have a great chance of earning an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Would it be mandatory to win this WCC Tournament? BYU coach Mark Pope doesn’t believe that’s the case for his 21-9 squad.

extra sauce 🔥 pic.twitter.com/pQTwqrXr04

— BYU Men's Basketball (@BYUMBB) March 2, 2022

“I don’t feel like that at all. Our body of work is really good. I think we’ve got to go show well,” Pope said. “If we win it, we’re definitely in. What this team has accomplished is pretty extraordinary. If you go back from the get-go, what they’ve done is impressive. But we need to finish. We need to play really well in Vegas and see what we can accomplish.”

With the stepladder bracket that the WCC uses in their tournament (thanks to Gonzaga threatening to leave for the Mountain West), BYU knows its path in this deep WCC. So let’s look at how far BYU will go in this year’s WCC Tournament.

Second Round: vs. Loyola Marymount (Friday, March 4, 7 p.m. MT)

Since Mark Pope became the head coach at BYU, the Cougars were getting used to being the last WCC team to touch The Orleans floor as the two-seed, who has a bye to the Semifinals. That’s not the case this year, thanks to a surprising four-game skid in the dog days of league play that sent BYU to the five-seed.

First up for BYU is a short-handed Loyola Marymount team without the heart of their team in Keli Leaupepe. In the opening round on Thursday night, the Lions rolled with a seven-man rotation during their 86-66 victory over Pacific.

CAREER-HIGH 31 Points

WCC Tournament Record 8 Threes!#RaiseTheStandard pic.twitter.com/N5I6RyoPuA

— LMU Men's Basketball (@lmulionsMBB) March 4, 2022

Starting guard Joe Quintana scored a career-high 31 points and a WCC Tournament record eight three-pointers in the win against the Tigers. BYU knows that LMU in them to get hot shooting the ball, despite their poor shooting percentages throughout the season. The Lions were scorching hot at Gersten Pavilion in the first meeting, building up a 17-point lead over a BYU squad that had its season hanging by a thread.

BYU took care of business against LMU in Provo, cruising to a 20-point win.

I don’t see BYU rolling to a 20-point victory in this one tonight, but BYU is the better team. The bouncebackability of BYU freshman Fousseyni Traore to return from a groin injury has been outstanding. Traore is coming off a 25-point, 19-rebound performance in the regular-season finale. Against LMU on February 10 in LA, he popped off for 19 points and 12 rebounds.

Without Leaupepe, the Lions won’t have an answer for Traore.

My prediction: BYU 76, LMU 63

Quarterfinals: vs. San Francisco (Saturday, March 5, 8:30 p.m. MT)

If it happens, BYU versus San Francisco, with NCAA Tournament implications at stake, might be the biggest quarterfinal in the history of the WCC Tournament. Two Quad 1 teams potentially squaring off in the quarters? That doesn’t happen in this conference. So it’s another example –again, assuming BYU gets by LMU– that this tournament has the makings to be pretty fun.

Did You Know:

USF is 1 of only 3 teams in the WCC to play all 16 conference games🤯

The Dons finished 2nd in offensive efficiency and 3rd in defensive efficiency🏀 #USFDons | #WCChoops pic.twitter.com/X3mHYS3ldA

— USF Men's Basketball (@USFDonsMBB) March 4, 2022

San Francisco features two All-WCC first-teamers in guard Jamaree Bouyea and Yauhen Massalski. Massalski, who transferred from league foe San Diego, has been a star for the Dons this season. Against BYU in Provo on February 3, Massalski went off for 16 points and 13 rebounds.

The size of San Francisco caused a lot of problems for an undersized and banged up BYU team.

But this will be a spot where the Dons have had a week off, while BYU rolls in with some confidence already having a win over their belt. I’ll call for Alex Barcello to have a big game and carry BYU to a close victory, giving them a critical Quad 1 victory to potentially punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

My prediction: BYU 73, San Francisco 71

Semifinals: vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (Monday, March 7, 7 p.m. MT)

The idea of matching up against Gonzaga is a nightmare for anyone. But, if there’s a spot you want to get Gonzaga, maybe it’s on Semifinal Monday, where the Zags have been off for nine days. Again, it’s a stretch, but when you’re trying to chart a path to an upset against the nation’s top team, you have to dig deep.

Two years ago, Gonzaga barely beat San Francisco by four after a long layoff heading into the semifinal of the WCC Tournament that year.

Best month of the year 🗓 pic.twitter.com/8ZH2xUUtUM

— Gonzaga Basketball (@ZagMBB) March 1, 2022

Look, Gonzaga is the better team. But I’m curious to see one thing for BYU against the Zags –if they get the opportunity against them- is how they perform on defense. In the 33-point loss in Provo on February 5, BYU didn’t put out their best effort on the defensive end of the floor. Could they hang tougher against them on a neutral floor?

Last season, BYU was up by 12 points at the half of the championship game before Jalen Suggs and crew outscored BYU by 22 points in the second half. This time the Zags will have their passionate fans behind them. Last year, they didn’t.

If BYU found a way to play Gonzaga and only lost by 10-points or even single digits, it could be viewed as a moral victory that could enhance their predictive metrics in KenPom and the NET. But that’s a tall ask as Gonzaga beat everyone by double-figures this year in the league, except for the loss to Saint Mary’s.

Chet Holmgren has proven to be worth all of the hype he garnered upon arrival. He might be better than he was advertised. BYU would love nothing more than a third chance against Gonzaga, but this Zags crew is upset after losing. Mark Few wants to find some answers on his bench. An angry Gonzaga team with their talent? Yeah, that wouldn’t be a winning proposition for BYU. But it would be a potential win if the Cougs get to Monday night.

My prediction: Gonzaga 90, BYU 74

Mitch Harper is a BYU Insider for sports.ksl.com and host of the Cougar Tracks Podcast (SUBSCRIBE) and Cougar Sports Saturday (Saturday from 12–3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow him on Twitter: @Mitch_Harper.

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